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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into late July
Post Posted: Jul 14, 2017 9:46 am 
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An interesting upper level pattern over the western U.S. the next day or two. In general, upper level ridge is well established over the Inter-Mountain west, with one center over the lower Colorado River Basin and another over central WY. However, a weak upper level low circulation exists over south central CO, creating mostly easterly flow aloft over much of CO. Drier air aloft exists north of I-70, but south of I-70 with the weak cyclonic flow thunderstorms are likely to develop and move slowly to the west northwest at 5-10 mph. Best precip chances will be over the south central mountains where brief heavy rain will be possible, but some storms may move up into the southern foothills and Palmer Divide this afternoon and evening. Activity should diminish by midnight. Temps today will be near to slightly below average. Similar situation on tap for Saturday as weak upper low drifts into southeast CO, so pattern of afternoon and evening storms will be similar to Friday, with a slight shift to the east, but out foothill areas may again see isolated afternoon and evening storms on Saturday. Temps Saturday a little cooler, so below average for most areas as this time in July is about the warmest time of year from a climatology perspective for CO.

By Sunday, weak upper low moves east into KS, and upper ridge become more established over UT creating a warmer and drier northwest flow aloft over CO. Temps will rise back to and slightly above seasonal norms, and precip chances will be limited to the higher terrain of the mountains.

For next week, upper ridge begins to transition to the east, so will be directly over CO on Monday, then move into the Central Plains Tuesday through next weekend. This will translate to warm and dry conditions Monday and Tuesday as upper ridge limits convection, but by Wednesday into next weekend, a much better upper level flow to support the transport of monsoon moisture into CO will exist, so would expect much better precip chances mid to late next week over much of CO. The better monsoon pattern is expected to persist into next weekend and the week beyond as models suggest upper level High will remain over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley which will keep a good flow for bringing monsoon moisture into CO.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into late July
Post Posted: Jul 17, 2017 11:05 am 
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Typical large upper level ridge in place from the Great Basin to the Central Plains keeping temps above seasonal norms. There are two distinct upper level anticyclonic circulation centers, one over the 4 Corners and one over KS. The one over the 4 Corners will create a nortwhest flow aloft over CO today and limit storms to mostly higher terrain of the mountains and foothills this afternoon and evening. Any rainfall is expected to remain on the light side with storm movement from the northwest at 5-15 mph. Temps will remain above average today statewide.

For Tuesday, models suggest the upper ridge will begin to consolidate over the Central Plains leaving CO under a mostly dry westerly flow aloft. Isolated storms will be possible, mostly over higher terrain with storm movement from the west at 5-15 mph. Temps will remain above average.

By Wednesday, upper High circulation become more prominent over the Central Plains which will begin to create a more favorable monsoon flow over CO, bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into CO from the south. Thus, thunderstorms will become more prevalent across the state with movement from the south. Some areas will begin to receive significant rainfall in heavier storms. On Thursday, monsoon flow will be in full swing with a southwest flow over CO and abundant thunderstorms are expected across much of the state with some producing heavy rainfall. This monsoon pattern is expected to be in place through the weekend as upper High moves into the mid Mississippi Valley and keeps the flow of monsoon moisture into CO. Models suggest most areas of CO will see from 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain through Sunday, while some areas could see 2-4 inches of rain. Temps will cool slightly due to more cloud cover and precip, so closer to seasonal norms Thursday through Sunday.

Models then suggest upper High will move back over the 4 Corners region by early next week, which will act to shut off monsoon moisture with a drier and warmer northwest flow aloft, and keep more isolated afternoon thunderstorms confined to higher terrain for most of next week into next weekend. Temps should rise above average for most of next week, with limited precip for most areas.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into late July
Post Posted: Jul 20, 2017 7:47 am 
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Monsoon moisture will continue to flow into CO from AZ and NM as upper High circulation center remains over KS today. Storms will begin to fire over higher terrain late this morning and early afternoon and drift eastward at 5-15 mph into the foothills and point east this afternoon and evening. Lots of moisture to work with, so some heavy rainfall will be possible in heavier storms. Most areas should see 0.10 to 0.25 inches, with amounts in the 1-2 inch range possible. Strongest storms should be along and north of I-70 and east of I-25 with the chance for some storms to become severe today, mostly with strong outflow winds and hail to 1 inch. Activity could persist through midnight on the plains. Temps should remain above average most areas today.

For Friday, monsoon moisture will continue and a weak upper level disturbance is forecast to move over CO which will enhance thunderstorm activity. Storms will begin to fire by late morning over the mountains and move east at 5-15 mph into the foothills and eastern CO by afternoon and evening. Expect Friday to be the wettest day of the week in the foothills, with up to 0.50 inches of precip possible, with much higher amounts possible in mountain areas and eastern plains. Disturbance could keep thunderstorm activity going into the overnight hours in many areas and perhaps into early Saturday morning. Temps should be near to sightly above average.

By Saturday, upper High begins to re-build over the Great Basin creating a drier northwest flow aloft over CO, which will shut off the monsoon moisture into the state. Temps will be below average as cooler air from the north moves over the state, and thunderstorm activity should remain mostly along and south of US 50, so not expecting any precip in our foothills on Saturday. Sunday will be very similar to Saturday with temps remaining below average, and very limited thunderstorm chances, mostly over higher terrain along the Divide.

For next week, upper ridge will remain near the 4 Corners region early in the week, which will limit precip and raise temps back above seasonal norms Monday through Wednesday. Later in the week, upper ridge is forecast to move east of CO into KS, which would create a return of monsoon moisture into CO and greatly increase precip and thunderstorm chances Thursday through Saturday and cool temps back near average. Models then suggest upper ridge re-builds over the Great Basin Sunday into the following week, which would create hot and mostly dry conditions over much of CO.

So goes the ebb and flow of monsoon moisture over CO. So far this season, the upper ridge position has favored to our west, which has limited influx of monsoon moisture for the most part, creating drier than average conditions across much of the foothills. We still have August to get some much needed moisture before the monsoon will fade in late August to early September.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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