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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Mid May
Post Posted: May 6, 2018 4:45 pm 
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Partly to mostly cloudy day with temps above average statewide. The week ahead will feature mostly dry conditions Monday through Thursday as temps remain 5-15 degrees above average. There will be a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers each day, but best chances will be over the mountains. Thursday will be the best chance for any measurable precip in the foothills.

A change is forecast Friday through Sunday as a upper level trough is forecast to dig into the Great Basin on Friday and move across CO Saturday. Showers will become more likely by Friday afternoon with isolated thunderstorms, but snow level will remain around 12,000 ft. Precip intensifies Friday night into Saturday morning as northeast upslope flow develops over eastern CO and snow level lowers to around 9000 ft. Precip is forecast to continue most of the day on Saturday as snow level lowers to 7000-8000 ft, so foothill areas above 8000 ft could see some accumulating snowfall on Saturday. Some precip may persist into Sunday morning with snow level near 7000 ft. Conditions should improve during the day on Sunday, but temps will remain on the cool side of average. Models suggest foothill and Front Range areas cold see 05. to 1.5 inches of precip next weekend, with up to 8 inches of snow above 8000 ft, but event is still pretty far out, so will see how things evolve during the week.

The following week looks dry and mild Monday through Wednesday, then cooler with some precip possible Thursday through Sunday.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Last edited by wxgeek on May 10, 2018 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid May
Post Posted: May 8, 2018 1:22 pm 
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Another warm and mostly sunny Spring day across the state today. Temps are expected to remain well above average, and little if any precip is expected across the state. Upper level ridge will build over CO Wednesday and Thursday, so temps will remain well above average each day. Only a slight chance for any precip statewide on Wednesday, then slightly better chances Thursday afternoon, with best chances north of I-70.

Models have taken a turn past 24 hours. Previous model runs had upper low dropping into the Great Basin and then across CO this weekend. Latest models now keep the upper low to our west and north, which reduces precip amounts over CO. Latest track now brings upper low over southern ID on Friday, and then moves the upper low into western WY on Saturday and remains over WY on Sunday. There will still be some precip this weekend, but not the drenching previous models were advertising. Now models suggest some showers will be possible Friday afternoon, with best chances north of I-70 as snow level remains above 12,000 ft. Then a cold front is forecast to drop south over eastern CO during the day on Saturday which will bring cooler temps and much better precip chances across much of eastern CO from the Divide east and north of US 50. The actual timing of this front will be tied to the track of the upper level low, so if models continue to change that, everything else changes. Thus with latest guidance heaviest precip would occur from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. As the upper low stays farther away, snow level is currently expected to remain at or above 10,000 ft, so a mostly rain event. Latest precip totals from models are now around 0.5 inches for foothill areas, so still some nice moisture, but not the soaker we could use. Some showers may be possible through Sunday evening.

For next week, models suggest temps will remain above average, with only isolated afternoon shower chances each day Monday through Thursday. Best precip chances will occur Wednesday and Thursday. Weak upper trough is forecast to move to our north late next week and weekend, so temps slightly cooler with better precip chances.

Our snowfall last week brought our season snowfall on Conifer Mountain to 101.5 inches, so are above the record of 99.25 inches for our lowest snowfall, now firmly in second place for driest snowfall season. The interesting part to our current snow season, is we have not had any month with snowfall over 16 inches, which is the first time that has happened since recording began in 1993.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid May
Post Posted: May 10, 2018 1:05 pm 
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Upper level ridge will build over CO today and create record to near record high temps for many areas today. Gusty southwest winds will also be present which has prompted Red Flag Warning for much of south central and southeast CO today as RH values remain very low. Chance for precip will be confined to far northern and northeast CO today, with the chance some storm may be severe along the CO/WY border region. Little if any precip expected elsewhere.

On Friday, upper level low digs into the Great Basin which will increase southwest flow loft over CO, so expect another warm and breezy day across much of CO with high fire danger in many areas. Precip chances will increase some for foothill areas, but only very light precip is expected if any. Best chances will be in mountain areas and across the far eastern plains.

For the weekend, models have continued the trend to keep the deep upper level low back over the Great Basin over the weekend and into early next week. The result will be to keep temps near average and less precip versus if the upper low were to move across CO. The forecast now call for periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening. Precip amounts look to be in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range for foothills and Urban Corridor from Friday through Monday. Snow level will remain at or above 12,000 ft. Best periods for precip look to be Friday night into Saturday morning, then Saturday afternoon and evening, and then again Sunday afternoon and evening. Models suggest surface flow will turn easterly Friday night into Saturday morning, so low clouds and fog may be present across eastern CO into the foothills. Temps will be at or slightly below average each day this weekend, but not too bad for Mothers Day festivities.

For early next week, upper low remains over the Great Basin which will create a chance for afternoon precip Monday through Wednesday, with best chances in the afternoon and evening hours with isolated thunderstorms possible. Drier and warm conditions move in late next week, before a upper level trough is forecast to move over CO next weekend, which would bring cooler temps and better precip chances.

On an interesting note, GFS model has suggested the past few days a tropical system will move into teh Gulf of Mexico the week of May 21, which would be very early in the year for a tropical storm or hurricane

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid May
Post Posted: May 11, 2018 12:54 pm 
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Two distinct regimes across the state today. Along and west of the foothills gusty southwest winds of 20-45 mph with temps above average today, while east of the foothills easterly winds with cooler temps and low clouds over the northeast plains. For precip today, it should be confined to the CO/WY border area with isolated thunderstorms possible, and some may become severe this afternoon and evening. Tonight a stronger push of air from the Great Plains will move into eastern CO from the foothills east with low clouds and some drizzle/light rain possible. In addition, low clouds and fog will be likely in the foothills up to 8000-9000 ft into Saturday morning.

Cooler temps and low clouds will remain across eastern CO on Saturday with areas of light rain and drizzle possible, especially up against the foothills. Warmer and drier conditions will prevail west of the foothills, with only some isolated afternoon showers possible. This pattern will persist into Sunday with m,ore low clouds and fog possible Sunday morning, but clearing through the day. Slightly better chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms statewide on Sunday as upper low remains over the Great Basin. Temps will be slightly warmer on Sunday and should be close to average for most areas.

For next week, the upper low is forecast to remain over northern NV through Wednesday as it gradually weakens. This will allow the chance for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms over CO through Wednesday. Models suggest precip amounts through Sunday evening will remain pretty light in our area, generally from 0.1 to 0.25 inches. However, models suggest higher precip amounts from Monday through Wednesday, between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, so hopefully we receive enough precip to keep fire danger a bit lower. Temps should be close to seasonal norms Monday through Wednesday next week. Late next week, slightly drier and warmer conditions are expected Friday through Sunday, with isolated afternoon showers possible.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid May
Post Posted: May 14, 2018 9:09 am 
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Current weather pattern is expected to persist into mid week, then be replaced by a similar pattern late this week into the weekend. Upper level low currently spinning over northeast NV keeping flow aloft over CO from the southwest. Low level flow will remain from the northeast which will keep low clouds and fog persisting across much of eastern CO through Tuesday, with some breaks during the day. There will be enough moisture and instability for thunderstorms to develop along the foothills this afternoon and evening and move to the northeast at 10-20 mph. A marginal risk of severe storms will persist today across much of eastern CO, with latest Hi-Res models focusing storms a little farther south today versus Sunday, so strongest storms expected from I-70 south to the Palmer Divide. Biggest threat will be small to medium sized hail along with frequent lightning. Activity is expected to persists through this evening until about midnight. Precip amounts expected to be mostly between 0.10 and 0.25 inches, but heavier amounts will be possible in heavier storms.

Similar pattern is in store for Tuesday as upper low remains over NV. Thus more low clouds and fog early morning followed by another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, with some approaching severe limits. Temps Monday and Tuesday will be near average.

On Wednesday, upper low weakens, so more sunshine expected and precip chances will be very small, thus temps will rise above seasonal norms. Thursday will be even warmer and precip chances remain very low statewide.

New upper low will move into the Great Basin late Thursday and move across CO Friday into Saturday. This will cause temps to drop back closer to or below average Friday and Saturday, and precip chances will be much better, with some heavy rain possible in thunderstorms each day.

By Sunday, temps return to average or slightly higher and precip chances return to the isolated afternoon/evening variety.

For next week, expect warm temps early next week with mostly dry conditions, then temps near average later in the week with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances. Models also suggest a tropical system may develop and move into the Gulf of Mexico.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid May
Post Posted: May 15, 2018 8:43 am 
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Mostly sunny start to the day after the nice light and hail show last night. Expect another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms today, with storm initiating along the foothills shortly after Noon, and moving off to the east at 10-20 mph. Best chances again look to be from the I-70 corridor south to the Palmer Divide. Latest HRRR cmoves most activity out of the foothills by this evening, so does not look like a repeat of last night's activity. Primary threat again today will be small to medium sized hail (0.5 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and frequent lightning, with severe storms possible across much of eastern CO. Temps will be near average most areas today.

Wednesday looks to be mostly dry across the state as temps warm above seasonal norms.

On Thursday, another day with temps above average, and main precip threat will be over the northeast plains with sever storms possible. Elsewhere most areas should remain dry.

On Friday, models agree that a cold front will push down from the north across eastern CO Friday afternoon. This cold front could spark some good thunderstorms if enough heating and moisture forms ahead of front during the day, with best chances over the northeast plains to the I-25 corridor. As front users in coller air from the northeast, precip will become stratiform (steady) with light to moderate rain likely Friday night into Saturday and temps will be below average on Saturday. Precip is expected to persist much of the day on Saturday into Saturday night, as low clouds and fog make for low visibility in the foothills from Friday night into Sunday morning. Snow level may drop to 9000-10,000 ft Saturday night.

By Sunday conditions should improve as temps struggle to make it back to average. Isolated afternoon storms will be possible, but mostly along and west of the Divide, but some storms may be possible in the foothills.

For next week, more typical summer pattern with temps above average and a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid May
Post Posted: May 16, 2018 11:20 am 
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Mostly sunny and warmer today as upper low over the Great Basin has dissipated and a upper level ridge will be over CO today. Much drier and more stable air has moved across western CO to about the I-25 corridor with light southwest flow. East of I-25 southerly flow exists which is keeping more moisture in this area, so a slight chance some later afternoon or evening storms could fire across the eastern plains, but mostly dry elsewhere. Temps will be 5-10 degrees above average today.

For Thursday, another warm day on tap across the state as temps remain well above average. A new upper level low that moved into CA on Wednesday will move into the Great Basin on Thursday increasing southwest flow aloft over the state. A slight risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will exist Thursday along and east of the I-25 corridor, with some the chance some storms could become severe across the far eastern plains. Mostly dry conditions expected in the foothills on Thursday with some gusty southwest winds which will increase fire danger.

On Friday, upper level low from the Great Basin will move into western Co during the day. An associated cold front is forecast to move south into eastern CO Friday afternoon into evening. The combination of these two will produce the possibility of severe thunderstorms across northeast CO, basically north of I-70 and east of I-25 Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Main threat will be medium to large (1.0-2.5 inch) hail but an isolated tornado is also possible. Timing for front is between 3-6 pm, and then upslope northeast flow and cooler temps will follow and move into the foothills Friday evening into Saturday morning which will also bring low clouds and fog into the foothills with reduced visibility. Snow level may lower to around 9000 ft Friday night into Saturday morning, so higher foothill areas could see some snow. Precip will remain likely across most of eastern CO during the day on Saturday into Saturday evening. Models suggest 0.25 to 0.50 inches of precip will be possible in the foothills Friday into Sunday. Precip is expected to ease up Saturday night into Sunday morning, with showers returning Sunday afternoon and evening. Temps Saturday will be well below average, then return to near average on Sunday.

For next week, upper level low will move into CA and create decent precip chances across much of CO Monday afternoon and evening, with lesser chances Tuesday. Upper level ridge is forecast to build over CO mod to late next week which will keep precip chances isolated to mostly higher terrain of the mountains, and keep temps above average all week. The warm and mostly dry conditions should continue into next weekend for the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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