It is currently Jun 24, 2018 10:39 am 






Reply to topic  [ 4 posts ] 

Previous topic | Next topic 

  Print view

Offline 
 Post subject: Continued Warm and Mostly Dry Weather into late June
Post Posted: Jun 8, 2018 8:07 am 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 2774
Location: Conifer Mountain
Upper level ridge axis will move into eastern CO today as winds aloft remain westerly today. Very dry air at the surface from I-25 west so very limited chance for any precipitation today, only a few high based storms over higher terrain will be possible, and little if any precip expected west of I-25. Better moisture across the eastern plains with a dry line in place, so a few isolated storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, with the potential for some to become severe. Temps will remain well above average today (10-15 deg) and approach record levels in some areas.

More of the same for the weekend, hot temperatures approaching record levels and little if any precip expected statewide Saturday and Sunday. Sunday is setting up to be a rather scary fire weather day across much of CO as southwest winds increase to 20-45 mph along with hot temps and low RH values. Expect Red Flag Warnings will be in place for much of CO west of I-25 on Sunday. Its gonna be a tough month for firefighting crews across the state, the Monsoon cannot come soon enough.

For next week, a weak cold front will move across CO Monday morning which will lower temps closer to average, but still remain slightly above average Monday and Tuesday. Front will be a dry front, so no precip expected. Wednesday temps will increase above average and conditions should remain mostly dry outside of a few storms over higher terrain.

Later next week, Thursday into Sunday models suggest better precip chances across the state as a upper trough moves into the Great Basin and imports some sub-tropical moisture into CO. Best precip chances appear to be next weekend.

The following week, temps look to be close to average with isolated afternoon and evening storm chances each day.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Continued Warm and Mostly Dry Weather into late June
Post Posted: Jun 11, 2018 3:48 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 2774
Location: Conifer Mountain
Mostly sunny day across the state today as dry and stable air resides over the state with westerly winds aloft. Satellite imagery showing some new large fires today in Utah as well as along the WY/CO border in addition to the 416 fire north of Durango which continues to grow each day. These fire will continue to make for smoky conditions across much of CO this week. Temps today running close to average thanks to dry cold front that passed through the state last night.

Tuesday will be pretty similar to today with mostly sunny skies and temps near average. Little if any precip expected as only very isolated thunderstorm development expected on Tuesday.

Later this week, upper level ridge will build over CO as a upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will turn winds from the southwest over CO, and temps will rise above seasonal norms Wednesday through Friday. There will be some additional moisture Wednesday through Friday, so there will be a chance for some isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day, but any precip from these storms will remain light, and little if any precip is expected in the foothills through Friday. Fire danger will remain very high this week for most of CO, especially from the foothills westward.

For the weekend, models move upper trough into the Great Basin and advect some moisture associated with Hurricane Bud in the eastern Pacific into CO, so better precip chances are expected for the weekend. GFS brings precip into CO beginning Friday afternoon, while the ECMWF hold off with precip until Sunday afternoon. Not sure which solution will pan out, but at least some precip is in our future. Temps will vary depending on which model is correct, GFS would have near average temps each day, while the ECMWF would have well above average temps Saturday, near average Sunday.

For next week, models keep cooler temps and good precip chances around Monday through Wednesday, then warmer and drier conditions Thursday into next weekend. Latest precip estimates show 1-2 inches of rain may be possible from Friday through next Wednesday in foothill areas, which would be a great help with fire danger.

As we head into late June, we are getting closer to the start of the North American Monsoon (NAM). Indications are we could see an early start to the NAM as tropical systems begin to develop in the eastern Pacific. In addition, as the ENSO conditions begin to transition from Neutral to possible weak El Nino conditions, this often enhances NAM precipitation over CO. Once the NAM begins, fire danger is typically greatly reduced over CO due to frequent rainfall and much higher humidity. If a weak to moderate El Nino does actually form, it could also mean better snowfall potential for the upcoming snow season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Continued Warm and Mostly Dry Weather into late June
Post Posted: Jun 12, 2018 12:45 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 2774
Location: Conifer Mountain
Another mostly sunny and hazy day across the state. We now have fires burning to our south, southwest, west and north so no matter which direction the wind is from, we will have to deal with smoke for a while. The usual diurnal pattern is for plumes to form during the day as fires grow, then the wind carries the smoke in the afternoon and evening, and then the smoke lies down at night and gets trapped underneath the nighttime inversion, making for smoky mornings, and then as the inversion breaks and winds pick up during the day, smoke dissipates and the cycle repeats. Temps will remain near seasonal norms today as winds will be westerly along and west of the foothills, while easterly across eastern CO. For precip, only a slight chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mostly along and south of I-70, and best chance along and east of I-25 where better surface moisture exists. Moisture remains very limited across western CO, keeping fire danger very high.

There is some good news in sight. Models continue to suggest good precip chances late this week into early next week, we just have to make it through the next few days. Wednesday temps will rise above average (5-10 degrees) and westerly winds will pick up across western CO, with southerly winds over eastern CO. Precip chances will remain slight, with best chances south of I-70 and east of I-25 on Wednesday. Thursday will be another scary fire weather day. Temps will be 10-20 degrees above average, and southwest winds of 20-45 mph will prevail from the foothills westward, so Red Flag Warnings will likely be in place for much of CO on Thursday. Precip chances will be very isolated on Thursday as well with single digit RH values.

On Friday, we may begin to see some relief. Winds will remain gusty from the southwest from the foothills westward, but more clouds and the chance for some precip across western CO finally. Moisture associated with hurricane Bud will begin to advect into western CO and create some precip chances from the Divide west. Temps will cool slightly, but remain well above average. Models suggest even better precip chances Saturday and Sunday with precip extending east to the I-25 corridor, with Sunday having greater precip potential. The good news is that southwest CO should receive up to an inch of rain over the weekend. Unfortunately that will come from thunderstorms that may also cause additional fires from lightning strikes, hopefully there is enough rainfall to limit new fire starts. Temps should be near average this weekend.

Models suggest cooler and wet conditions will persist Monday through Wednesday of next week from the mountains into the Urban Corridor. Temps should drop below average early next week, and models suggest foothills areas could see 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain from Friday through Wednesday. Models suggest warmer temps back to average late next week with isolated precip chances mostly from I-25 westward. Warmer and drier conditions are forecast for next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Offline 
 Post subject: Re: Continued Warm and Mostly Dry Weather into late June
Post Posted: Jun 13, 2018 1:11 pm 
Oh my, Big Time poster!
Oh my, Big Time poster!
User avatar
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 6:52 pm
Posts: 2774
Location: Conifer Mountain
Early morning storms that formed across eastern CO this morning have pushed much better moisture from the I-25 corridor eastward across CO today. With westerly flow across western CO and southerly flow across eastern CO this will allow storms to form along and east of the foothills this afternoon and then move to the east at 10-20 mph. As storm move into better moisture environment east of I-25, some storms may become severe with large hail the primary threat. Precip will be isolated to areas where storms form, so most foothill areas are not expected to receive much rainfall, but could be some localized downpours. Activity should dissipate in the foothills by evening but remain active through midnight across the plains. Temps will again be above average today, and gusty westerly winds across western Co have prompted more Red Flag Warnings, so fire crews out west not catching a break yet.

Thursday and Friday are shaping up to be tough fire weather days. Southwest winds of 15-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will be in place across much of Co from I-25 westward each day, and RH values will be very low creating dangerous fire conditions. There will be a chance for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day, but not a lot of precip expected with storms. Best precip chances Thursday will be along and east of I-25, while Friday best chances will be from the foothills west as some moisture associated with hurricane Bud moves into western CO. Temps will remain well above average Thursday and Friday.

As we move into the weekend, upper level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with upper ridge to our east. This is more of our typical Monsoon upper level pattern which will help import moisture from Mexico and the eastern Pacific. Precip chances increase Saturday from I-25 westward, with significant precip expected across southwest CO which will be a huge help in the 416 fire area. Foothill areas could see up to 0.10 inches on Saturday in isolated thunderstorms. Temps Saturday will cool some but still remain above average. On Sunday, even better precip chances with focus from I-25 westward again. Amounts up to 0.25 inches will be possible as temps cool back to near average.

For early next week, models move upper level trough into the northern Great Basin and keep a moist southwest flow over CO. This will lead to continued precip chances on Monday with heaviest precip from the Divide east. 0.25 - 0.50 inches of precip may be possible in foothill areas on Monday as temps cool below average. Tuesday into Wednesday upper trough is forecast to move into the northern Rockies but will keep good chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms across CO, with best chances along and east of the Divide as temps remain below average. Later next week, only isolated precip chances expected Thursday and Friday as temps warm back to near average. The good news is models suggest the chance for 1-3 inches of rainfall over the foothills over the next 10 days, which will go a long ways to reducing fire danger in our local area.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


Top
  Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 4 posts ] 

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:

Who is online

In total there are 16 users online :: 0 registered, 0 hidden and 16 guests (based on users active over the past 60 minutes)
Most users ever online was 2823 on Mar 26, 2012 7:26 pm

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests





Powered by phpBB © 2000-2012 phpBB Group

This website copyright © 1994-2018 by
Pinecam.com is a member of the Platte Canyon Area Chamber of Commerce