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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Mid February
Post Posted: Jan 31, 2019 2:01 pm 
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Tranquil weather across the state today as CO remain under northwest flow aloft with upper ridge just to our west. Upper ridge will move over CO Friday and then to our east on Saturday as upper trough approaches to our west. Dry conditions will prevail statewide through Saturday, and temps will be 5-10 degrees above average today, rising to 10-15 degrees above average Friday and Saturday.

The upper level trough will move across the state on Sunday, with majority of energy remaining to our north. Winds aloft will remain westerly with this system, thus little if any precip is expected east of the Front Range Crest. Precip will move into western CO after midnight Saturday night with snow level near 8000 ft. Precip will move east during the day on Sunday to the Front Range Crest as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. Some rain showers will be possible across the northeast plains, but foothills look to remain dry. Precip will diminish by Sunday evening in the mountains. Snow amounts generally light, 2-6 inches in the mountains, except 6-12 inches possible over the southwest mountains.

Next system looks a bit stronger and will move into the Great Basin on Monday, then across CO on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Some precip will move into western CO during the day on Monday with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Precip will intensify along and west of the Front Range Crest Monday night into Tuesday morning as snow level lowers to 4000-5000 ft. Precip remains over the mountains during the day on Tuesday with snow level near 4000 ft and then a cold front is forecast to move south over eastern CO Tuesday evening that will bring snow and colder temps to eastern CO including our foothills. Snow will persist overnight, then become showery and mostly over the mountains on Wednesday with temps below average. For snow amounts, mountains could see 5-10 inches from this system, with 1-3 inches possible from the foothills into the eastern plains. If surface low and upslope flow become more developed, foothills could see more snow from this system.

Cold temps and some flurries will be possible Thursday but not much if any additional accumulation for most areas. Friday looks mostly dry and cool statewide.

Next weekend precip chances return Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon. Models suggest more precip will be possible from Tuesday into the following weekend.

The Arctic Blast farther east will begin to move east this weekend with much warmer temps moving into the region. Saw a wind chill value of -70F and Ely, MN this morning. Even the wolves may think that's pretty cold. For reference, coldest temp recorded in the lower 48 was at Rogers Pass, Montana at -70F back in 1954. Coldest temp in Colorado was -61F in Maybell in 1985. Coldest temp on the planet was -128F at Vostok, Antarctica in 1983.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid February
Post Posted: Feb 2, 2019 9:08 am 
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Axis of upper level ridge will be over CO today, so expect warm and dry conditions statewide today with temps 10-15 degrees above average. Westerly winds will increase this afternoon into tonight in the mountains and foothills so expect breezy to windy conditions. Pacific system will move into western CO tonight after midnight and bring precip to areas west of Vail Pass tonight with snow level 8000-9000 ft. Precip will increase Sunday morning and move east to about the Front Range Crest as snow level lowers to 6000-7000 ft. System will weaken Sunday afternoon and no precip is expected east of the Front Range Crest. Mountains will receive 6-12 inches of snow above 7000 ft, so winter driving conditions in teh mountains tonight through Sunday afternoon. As upper system moves east of CO Sunday afternoon, westerly winds will increase from the mountains to the base of the foothills with speeds of 25-50 mph Sunday evening into Monday morning. Temps will remain above average on Sunday.

For next week, next Pacific system will move from northern CA on Monday into the Great Basin on Wednesday and across CO Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Weather wise, expect some mountain snow Monday and Tuesday, but mostly dry east of the Divide. Breezy southwest winds will exist each day and temps will remain above average.

On Wednesday, precip will increase over the mountains with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will move east into the foothills and eastern CO Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Mountains will see an additional 6-12 inches, while foothill areas may see 1-3 inches and a trace to and inch or two farther east as snow level lowers to below 4000 ft Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temps will be much cooler on Thursday with clearing conditions by afternoon.

Friday and Saturday look dry statewide as temps return to near average. Next chance for precip will be Sunday with more precip possible the following week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid February
Post Posted: Feb 5, 2019 4:31 pm 
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Weather may not be my top priority this week as my father passed away Sunday morning, so I am out in CA taking care of things. Sometimes I need a break, and looking at weather provides that, so on to the weather....

Powerful Pacific system that dumped 5-10 feet of snow in the Sierras this week is heading into CO this afternoon into Thursday morning. Precip has begun moving into western CO west of the Divide today with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip will intensify tonight as precip moves to about the Front Range Crest overnight as snow level lowers to 4000 ft. Snow will presist in the mountains all day Wednesday creating tough travel conditions. Snow will move into eastern CO Wednesday morning and continue into Thursday morning as temps get much colder going below zero Wednesday night. For amounts, mountains are looking at 6-18 inches, while foothill areas should see 2-6 inches and locally up to 8 inches in favored areas. Urban Corridor to see 2-5 inches and 1-3 inches farther east on the plains. Roads are likely to become snow and ice packed from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, so expect a tough commute on Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Thursday will remain cold but mostly dry outside of a few mountain flurries. Temps will remain in the teens in foothill areas. Friday through Sunday looks to remain dry statewide. Temps will remain below average Friday then return to near average Saturday and Sunday.

For next week, precip chances return on Monday as next Pacific system moves into CO. Snow will move into western CO Monday morning and move east into eastern Co Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Currently looks like 3-6 inches in the mountains with 1-2 inches for foothill areas. Mostly dry Tuesday with temps below average, then more snow possible Wednesday into Thursday next week. Dry Friday then potentially bigger system next weekend.

As for my father, he lived 90 wonderful years on this planet, 67 of them blissfully married to my mom. He was a wonderful man that taught me so much about life, and had nothing but support for me in whatever I did. He was loved by many and will be sorely missed.

A few images of my dad over the years

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_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid February
Post Posted: Feb 9, 2019 1:22 pm 
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A mostly breezy and cool day across the state today with lots of clouds associated with long wave upper level trough being anchored along the West Coast. As systems continue to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska into CA and then move into the Great Basin and into CO. Some snow will move into western CO later this afternoon and tonight. Vast majority will remain west of the Front Range Crest, but foothills may see a light dusting this evening/tonight. Temps will remain on teh cool side of average today.

Sunday will be a cool but mostly dry day statewide in-between systems. Next system will bring snow to western CO Sunday night into Monday morning. Again vast majority of snow will remain west of Front Range Crest with mostly a dusting in the foothills Monday morning. Snow will diminish statewide Monday afternoon. Mountains could see 3-7 inches so winter travel conditions to our west as temps remain below average.

Tuesday looks mostly dry as another in-between day, but temps remain below average. Next system moves into western CO during the day on Wednesday with snow west of the Front Range Crest. Snow will persist in the mountains Wednesday night and then move into eastern CO during the day on Thursday into Thursday night. Probably the best chance for accumulating snow locally, but likely less than 2 inches for foothill areas, but 6-12 inches possible in the mountains.

Friday looks dry, then a potentially stronger system will move across CO Saturday into Sunday with several inches possible in our foothills.

For the following week, more cool temps with snow possible at times. Heavier snow possible later in the week as upper level pattern keeps cold air and snow possible for much of the Western U.S.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid February
Post Posted: Feb 11, 2019 4:46 pm 
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Just a few lingering showers over southeast CO this afternoon, otherwise a mostly dry and breezy day for our foothills with temps below average. A rather complex weather pattern will take shape later this week, and this has left models a bit confused. In general, a Atmospheric River event will form over CA Wednesday with a polar system dropping south from the Pacific Northwest that combines with sub-tropical moisture from Hawaii (formerly know as the Pineapple Express, but apparently Dole took offense to this description, so now we have atmospheric river). This moisture will make it's way into western CO late Wednesday with snow level near 8000 ft. Some precip may make it into eastern CO early Thursday as snow level remains near 8000 ft, but any precip would be light east of the Front Range Crest. Mountains could see 6-18 inches of snow above 8000 ft however. After that models do not agree well at all. ECMWF brings snow to all of eastern CO Friday, while GFS is dry statewide until Friday night into Saturday.

Basically we should see warmer temps Wednesday through Friday but some windy conditions Wednesday. Better snow chances for our foothills seem to be from Friday into this weekend, but timing is still uncertain as well as amounts. Next week looks colder, with some snow chances mid week, and possibly stronger system next weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid February
Post Posted: Feb 12, 2019 11:22 am 
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The focus for the next 48 hours will be high winds for the foothills. Strong westerly winds currently over the mountains will push east into the foothills this afternoon and strengthen overnight into Wednesday with sustained speeds of 25-50 mph and gusts to 75 mph will be possible into Thursday morning. Strongest winds locally will be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. For precip, that will move into western CO Wednesday afternoon with snow level around 10,000 ft. Precip will continue along and west of the Front Range Crest Wednesday night into Thursday morning as snow level lowers to 8000 ft. With such strong westerly winds, foothills will likely just see some blow off snow, but nothing accumulating. Mountains will see 2-5 inches but winds will make travel difficult above 8000 ft. Precip diminishes through the day on Thursday before next wave moves into western CO Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Snow level will be near 8000 ft with this system and vast majority will remain west of the Front Range Crest, but foothills may see a dusting to an inch of snow above 8000 ft. Next batch of moisture moves into CO Friday night into Saturday and a cold front associated with this system will bring snow level down below 4000 ft by Saturday. This will be best chance to see accumulating snow locally with with 1-3 inches possible in our foothills. Mountains will see 6-18 inches between Wednesday and Saturday.

Sunday will see colder temps with isolated snow showers, but little if any additional accumulation for most areas. Sunday night into Monday good chances for snow statewide as next system moves down from the northwest, so 2-4 inches possible for foothill areas as temps remain below average. Conditions dry out Tuesday through Thursday next week as temps remain cool. Then more snow possible late next week into the weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid February
Post Posted: Feb 13, 2019 3:06 pm 
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High Wind Warning will remain in effect for foothill areas through midnight tonight, and strong winds will persist into Thursday. Precip from West Coast Atmospheric River event will move into western CO this evening with snow level near 9000 ft. Precip will persits overnight and move east to about the Front Range Crest but little if any expected in local areas. Snow level will lower to about 8000 ft Thursday as precip diminishes in the afternoon. Mountain areas above 8000 ft could see 6-12 inches from this, so combined with strong westerly winds travel will become very difficult across mountain passes tonight into Thursday morning. Temps will remain above average as Pacific air moves into CO today into Thursday.

As precip lets up Thursday, winds will begin to diminish some in the afternoon but remain breezy. Next batch of Pacific moisture arrives Thursday evening across western CO with snow level near 8000 ft. Some precip from this system will move into eastern CO during the day on Friday with snow level near 6000-7000 ft, so foothill areas could see a dusting to an inch or so of snow on Friday. Conditions clear Friday afternoon, then next system will bring cooler temps and snow to western CO Friday night with snow level down to 4000 ft. Snow will push into eastern CO early Saturday morning with snow showers through the day on Saturday. Mountain areas will see another 6-12 inches from the Friday into Saturday system, and 1-2 inches possible in foothill areas Saturday.

Sunday will be cool with some mountain flurries, but not much accumulation expected.

For next week, pattern will remain very active as systems drop down from the Gulf of Alaska into the northern and central Rockies. First system will bring more snow to CO Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Locally we could see 1-3 inches from this. Mostly dry and cool on Tuesday, then next system brings some light snow late Wednesday into Thursday afternoon, probably less than an inch locally. Cool with some lingering flurries on Friday.

Mostly dry with temps near average Saturday, then a potentially bigger system on tap late Sunday into Tuesday morning.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Mid February
Post Posted: Feb 23, 2019 11:08 am 
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Mostly sunny today after 4-8 inches of snow last night across the foothills and Urban Corridor. Some snow still wrapping up across the far eastern plains but that should move out of the state by Noon. Northwest winds will become gusty this afternoon into Sunday morning with speeds of 15-35 mph and gusts to 50 mph that will cause blowing and drifting of fresh snow, so prone areas like South Park may have travel issues today and tonight. Temps will remain below average today. Winds should die down Sunday morning for a mostly sunny day Sunday with temps remaining below average.

For next week, models create a flat upper ridge over CO with westerly flow aloft that will keep precip to our north. So mostly dry conditions Monday through Wednesday with temps near average Monday and above average Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday some moisture will create light mountain snow with snow level near 8000 ft, but dry east of the Divide and temps remain above average. On Friday a cold front will bring more snow chances to the mountains to about the Front Range Crest and cool temps closer to average.

For next weekend, much better snow chances along and west of the Front Range Crest and cooler air across eastern CO, but little if any snow expected. Better snow chances for eastern CO on Monday as cold front moves south across eastern CO. Conditions remain mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday as temps remain cool, then more precip chances late in the week into the weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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