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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Late May
Post Posted: May 12, 2019 10:49 am 
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Happy Mothers Day to all the mom's and step-mom's out there, and thank you for all you do and have done.

Pretty nice day overall for outdoor activities today. Temps should return to near average, and only a very slight chance for afternoon and evening showers, with best chances over the mountains.

For the week ahead, upper ridge will build over the Great Basin and allow temps to rise 5-10 degrees above average Monday through Friday. There will be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms each day, with better chances later in the week. Snow level should remain above 14,000 ft all week. Southwest slow aloft will increase late in the week as upper trough moves into the Great Basin, so some gusty southwest winds possible Thursday into Friday.

For the weekend, a strong zonal flow will from the Pacific into the Great Basin will keep gusty westerly winds and a chance for precip Saturday and Sunday. Temps will also be cooler as snow level lowers back to 9000 - 10,000 ft. Models suggest this pattern will persist into next week keeping temps closer to average and a chance for precip early next week.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late May
Post Posted: May 13, 2019 9:36 am 
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Some very nice May weather is on tap this week, with no snow in the forecast as snow level will remain above 14,000 ft this week. Upper ridge is building over the Great Basin today as upper level low over southern NM moves east. This will leave CO under a northwest flow aloft today and Tuesday. Temps today will be 5-10 degrees above average statewide. There will be a chance for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms today and storm motion will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph. Storms will be isolated and not much precip is expected, unless directly underneath one.

Tuesday should be a near repeat of Monday, temps 5-10 degrees above average and isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday, upper ridge axis nearly over CO, so flow aloft turns westerly. Temps will be 5-15 degrees above average with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms once again.

By Thursday, vigorous upper level trough will move onshore over CA and bring increased southwest winds aloft over CO. The southwest flow will increase temps east of the Divide to 10-15 degrees above average and some gusty southerly winds will be prevalent across much of CO. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially west of the I-15 corridor. Upper trough moves into the Great Basin on Friday which will further increase southwest winds aloft over CO, creating some wind southerly winds across the state. Good precip chances Friday afternoon and evening along and west of I-25 with isolated thunderstorms. Storm motion would be from the southwest at 15-25 mph.

For the weekend, a more winter like upper level pattern develops over the Eastern Pacific with a good batch of moisture moving onshore into CA. For CO, this will bring cooler temps that will be 5-10 degrees below average, and decent precip chances each day, especially west of the I-25 corridor. Snow level will lower to the 9000-10,000 ft range, so snow will be possible at higher elevations in the mountains this weekend.

For next week, upper level trough will remain over the West Coast early in the week, creating cooler temps, breezy conditions and good precip chances especially west of I-25 Monday through Wednesday with snow level near 10,000 ft. Late next week, models build upper level ridge from TX up into CO which would create warmer temps above average, and drier conditions statewide and these conditions currently look to extend into the Holiday weekend.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late May
Post Posted: May 15, 2019 9:16 am 
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Enjoy this warm and beautiful late May weather this week, as it appears Mother Nature has some changes in store for us Friday into next week ....

Today and Thursday will keep temps well above average statewide. Isolated afternoon and evening showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible each day, but any precip is expected to remain light. Storm motion today will be from the west at 10-20 mph, and from the southwest on Thursday. Upper level ridge axis will be directly over CO today, and then just to our east on Thursday as a late season upper level trough moves onshore in CA. Southwest flow aloft will increase over CO on Thursday, bringing some gusty southerly surface winds to the state.

By Friday, upper level trough progresses into the Great Basin which will bring cooler temps to CO and much better precip chances. Precip will move into western CO Friday morning and spread east with showers and thunderstorms into eastern CO by Friday afternoon and evening. Snow level will lower to 10,000 ft so higher mountain areas will see some new snow. Thunderstorms may bring brief heavy rain to some areas, along with small hail and lightning. Some precip may linger Friday night into Saturday morning over mountain areas as snow level lowers to 7000-8000 ft.

On Saturday, upper trough will be to our east, but cooler temps will prevail as temps will remain below average statewide. Good chances for precip again Saturday afternoon and evening statewide with snow level near 10,000 ft. Activity should die down after sunset.

On Sunday, another upper level trough moves onshore in CA but a mostly dry start to the day here in CO. Temps will remain below average, and isolated light precip will be possible mostly west of I-25 Sunday afternoon and evening with snow level 10,000 - 11,000 ft.

As the upper level trough moves east Monday into Tuesday over CO, temps will fall way below average, and good precip chances will exist statewide Monday into Tuesday morning. Snow level will be 8000-9000 ft on Monday, lowering to near 7000 ft Monday night into Tuesday morning, so foothill areas above 8000 ft could see a few inches of snow late Monday into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of next week, yet another upper trough will remain over the Great Basin Wednesday through Friday. This will bring a chance for showers each day, mostly west of I-25 and temps will be near average. A residual upper trough will remain over the 4 Corners area through Memorial Day, which will bring precip chances to CO each day, especially Sunday and Monday, but snow levels should remain 12,000 ft.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late May
Post Posted: May 16, 2019 9:05 am 
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Last warm day for a while today as temps will remain 10-15 degrees above average most areas. Lots of mid and high clouds streaming over CO today ahead of powerful late season system moving over CA today, bringing heavy rain and snow to areas of CA. As southwest flow aloft picks up ahead of incoming system, mountain and foothill areas could see wind gusts in the 25-45 mph range this afternoon and evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over higher terrain and move to the northeast at 10-20 mph into foothill areas and farther onto the plains this evening. Any precip still expected to be light, under 0.10 inches for most areas. Activity should die down after sunset, except on teh far eastern plains where activity could persist through midnight.

As upper tough moves into the Great Basin on Friday, CO will remain under strong southwest flow aloft, so gusty southwest winds will persist in mountain and foothill areas during the day. Temps will lower below average for most areas on Friday as cooler air aloft moves over the state. Precip will move into western CO Friday morning with snow level around 9000 ft. Precip will then move into eastern CO Friday afternoon and evening with isolated thunderstorms possible, that may reach severe limits across northeast CO Friday afternoon and evening. Snow level will be 9000-10,000 ft during the day on Friday over mountain areas. Precip amounts could exceed 0.10 inches in some areas on Friday. Activity should diminish after midnight except over far western CO where showers may linger into Saturday morning.

For the weekend, one upper trough moves east while yet another moves onshore in CA. Temps will be below average both days this weekend by 5-15 degrees. Precip will begin across western CO Saturday morning with snow level down to 7000 ft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move east into eastern CO Saturday afternoon and evening. Activity should diminish after sunset, and precip amounts will generally be below 0.10 inches. On Sunday, should be a dry start to the day, then as upper trough moves into the Great Basin later in the day, showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain by late morning and move east into eastern CO during the afternoon and evening hours. Snow level will be near 9000 ft on Sunday.

Precip will continue overnight into Monday morning due to lift associated with upper trough to our west and snow level will be 8000-9000 ft Sunday night into Monday morning, so higher foothill areas may see some snow, generally in the 1-3 inch range above 8000 ft. Showers and thunderstorms will persist across most of the state through Monday evening as snow level remains near 8000 ft. Precip lingers into Tuesday evening as snow level remains near 8000 ft. Models suggest foothill areas could see 0.25 to 0,50 inches of precip this weekend into Tuesday next week, along with the 1-4 inches of snow above 8000 ft.

Later next week into Memorial Day weekend, models bring yet another deep upper trough into the Great Basin, but keep most of the energy and precip with this system to our west. This should allow temps to warm back to average or above late next week, and keep mostly dry conditions outside of a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms mostly over higher terrain, along with some gusty southwest winds. This pattern should persist through Memorial Day if current models are correct, but they have been vacillating over this pattern the past few days, so not a lot of confidence in this longer term forecast as this point.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late May
Post Posted: May 17, 2019 11:25 am 
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The cooling trend has begun... Temps today will be about 5 degrees below average, and each subsequent day though Monday temps will gradually decrease each day. In addition, each subsequent day will have better precip chances out through Tuesday. Models suggest from today through Tuesday, foothill areas should receive between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of precip.

For today, showers have developed across western CO this morning and will move east during the day. Showers and thunderstorms will move from the southwest at 15-25 mph, and storms may become severe across far northeast CO this afternoon and evening. Most precip will end after sunset today, except for lingering showers overnight over the mountains west of the Divide. Snow level will be near 12,000 ft today, lowering to near 8000 ft by Saturday morning over mountain areas. Mountain areas will generally see 1-3 inches of snow through Saturday morning above 10,000 ft.. Most areas will receive less than 0.10 inches of precip today.

For Saturday, upper trough will be moving over CO during the day, so expect another round of afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms statewide with snow level 9000-10,000 ft. Precip amounts will mostly be under 0.10 inches, and 1-2 inches of additional snow for mountain areas above 10,000 ft. Temps will be 5-10 degrees below average most areas.

On Sunday, CO is between upper level troughs, so a mostly sunny and cool start to the day, then precip will mostly be confined to areas west of the Front Range Crest Sunday afternoon and evening, with snow level near 10,000 ft.

Next system will move into CO Monday into Tuesday, and this will be a stronger system with a closed upper level low moving into eastern CO late Monday into Tuesday morning. Some precip will begin Sunday night into Monday morning, then precip will increase in coverage and intensity during the day on Monday statewide. Snow level during the day will generally be 9000-10,000 ft, and thunderstorms will also be possible during the day. As upper level and surface low develop Monday night over eastern CO, precip will continue and snow level will lower to 6000-7000 ft overnight, with accumulating snow likely in foothill areas above 7000 ft. Most snow will melt on pavement, with accumulations mostly on grassy surfaces, but latest models suggest 2-5 inches of snow in foothill areas above 7000 ft. Temps on Monday will be some 20-30 degrees below average statewide.

On Tuesday, showers will persist mostly west of the Front Range Crest as snow level remains near 8000 ft. Temps will remain well below average Tuesday.

On Wednesday, yet another upper level trough moves into the Great Basin and will bring another round of precip to CO on Wednesday with snow level near 9000 ft. Temps will remain below average.

Finally on Thursday, we begin a gradual warming and drying trend. Showers will once again develop west of I-25 Thursday afternoon with snow level near 10,000 ft, but precip amounts should remain mostly light. Temps will be about 5 degrees below average. Friday through Sunday temps look to return to near average, and there will be a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over higher terrain of foothill and mountain areas as snow level remains above 10,000 ft.

Monday (Memorial Day) into Tuesday models bring yet another upper level low to our west which will bring better precip chances and cooler temps to most of CO.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late May
Post Posted: May 19, 2019 7:27 am 
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A cool and mostly cloudy start to the day today as moisture from next Pacific storm begins to move into CO. Precip chances will increase from west to east this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible, and activity may persist into the overnight hours in some parts of the state. Snow level will be in the 9000-10,000 ft range today with some accumulation over mountain areas above 10,000 ft. There will be a slight lull in precip Monday morning as snow level lowers to near 8000 ft. Precip will increase in coverage and intensity Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning as upper level low and surface low develop over southeast CO. Snow level remains near 8000 ft on Monday, then lowers to near 6000 ft by Tuesday morning. Showers will persist much of the day on Tuesday with snow level in the 6000-7000 ft range. Temps will be way below average Monday and Tuesday, some 30 degrees below average for most areas. For precip, latest models suggest around 0.50 inches locally with 1-2 inches possible across the plains. For snow, foothill areas looking at 2-5 inches above 6000 ft, with 6-12 inches possible over mountain areas. Roads may become slick Monday night into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of the week, another upper trough will move into the Great Basin Wednesday through Thursday which will keep showers possible each day and temps will remain below average. For Friday through Memorial Day, upper trough remains over CA with warmer and drier weather forecast for CO. Temps should return to near average, and only some isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible each day, but precip amounts should be light. So should be a decent holiday weekend for most areas of the state.

I will be off storm chasing in Oklahoma the next few days, so may not provide updated until Wednesday. Chances to see severe weather look quite good on Monday for western TX and OK.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late May
Post Posted: May 22, 2019 3:04 pm 
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I must say, the weather was much more pleasant in Oklahoma.

A large upper trough extends from the northern Great Plains all the way back to CA, with circulation centers in ND and CA. Over the next 72 hours the CA center will move into the Great Basin Thursday and into MT on Friday, then yet another upper trough will move down the West Coast into CA on Sunday and into the Great Basin SUnday and across CO Tuesday. This all points to a continuation of our cool and wet weather through early next week.

For today, precip has moved into the mountains and foothills with snow level 8000-9000 ft. This precip is expected to persist overnight and through much of the day on Thursday and extend into the eastern plains. Snow level Thursday should remain in the 8000-9000 ft range and continue into Thursday evening, then begin to diminish overnight. An additional 1-3 inches of snow is possible above 8000 ft in our foothills, with 2-6 inches possible in mountain areas. Temps will remain below average today and Thursday.

By Friday, things will begin to dry out and warm up. Temps will be near seasonal norms on Friday, and showers should be limited to areas west of the Front Range Crest in the afternoon and evening.

For the holiday weekend, temps will be near average Saturday, then above average Sunday, but back below average Monday. For precip, Saturday looks mostly dry, isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday, then better precip chances Monday with showers and thunderstorms likely. Snow level should remain above 10,000 ft each day.

On Tuesday, precip is likely statewide as upper trough moves over, and temps will be below average as snow level may lower to 9000 ft.

For the rest of next week, models build an uper level ridge over CO, which will bring temps back to at least average, and precip should just be of the more usual chance of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorm variety. Next weekend has better precip chances and temps remain near to slightly below average.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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