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 Post subject: Weather Outlook Through February
Post Posted: Feb 6, 2018 4:23 pm 
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Precip is gradually diminishing across the state this afternoon. Mountains received a good dose of snow while areas east of the Front Range Crest were left mostly absent snow. Temps will be mostly below average today with clearing overnight.

The rest of the work week looks mostly dry Wednesday through Friday as temps return to average or slightly above.

Next chance for precip return on Saturday as system moves down from the northwest across CO. Upper level ridge has moved far enough west into the Pacific to allow systems that move over the top of the ridge to slide down across CO. Precip should move into northern CO early Saturday morning and march south across the state during the day. Very cold air will accompany snow on Saturday so this event will be all snow and temps will steadily drop during the day on Saturday. Precip should begin to taper off by Saturday evening with clearing overnight. AT this time, snow amounts look to be in the 5-10 inch range over the mountains, 2-6 inches over the foothills, and 1-4 inches over the Urban Corridor and plains. Amounts will likely change during the week, but models currently in decent agreement so maybe not too much change.

Sunday will be mostly dry but cool as temps remain below average.

For next week, models suggest upper ridge will remain in the eastern Pacific which will allow systems to continue to drop down from western Canada across Colorado. First system will move down Tuesday, next system on track for Thursday, then things dry out into next weekend as the pattern may begin to change, so a little uncertain what may transpire after that. Temps will generally be near to slightly below average next week. Overall, these system do not produce a lot of snow for eastern CO, but better amounts for the mountains. Any moisture is appreciated at this point as our state remains well below average for snowfall.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through February
Post Posted: Feb 7, 2018 3:09 pm 
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Mostly dry, breezy and mild day across the state. Brisk northwest flow aloft may produce some orographic snow showers over west facing slopes of the northern and central mountains, but otherwise just some breezy to windy conditions at higher elevations. Temps will generally be 5-10 degrees above average across the state today. Similar looking day on tap for Thursday with isolated snow showers in the high country, otherwise dry, breezy and mild with temps above average once again.

On Friday, the first surge of cold air will move into eastern CO during the day with northeast flow along and east of the Front Range. Temps will be close to average on Friday as cooler air moves over eastern from the foothills eastward, as temps remain mild on the west side of the Front Range Crest with westerly flow aloft. By Friday night, low clouds may develop along and east of the foothills below 9000 ft, so a slight chance of freezing drizzle and freezing fog in the foothills Friday night. Upper level trough will move south across CO during the day on Saturday, which will bring precip from north to south across the state during the day. System is not overly impressive, but it should be enough to bring snow to most of the state. Snow will begin after midnight near the CO/WY border and move south to neat the I-70 corridor by dawn. Snow will move south during the day, with heaviest snow period in the foothills to be from 9 AM through 6 PM. Snow will begin to taper off Saturday afternoon and should move south of I-70 by evening, and out of the state by midnight. For snow amounts, mountains could see 4-10 inches, while foothills could see 2-6 inches, and Urban Corridor and plains could see 1-4 inches. Roads may become slick during the day on Saturday, with wet and slushy roads at lower elevations and ice and snow packed roads at higher elevations. Temps will be cool on Saturday, with high temps in the teen and lower 20's, dropping to near zero by Sunday morning.

Sunday should be mostly sunny and cool, with temps below average.

For next week, Monday looks mostly sunny with temps near to slightly above average. Next system is on track for Monday night into Tuesday, looking similar to our system on Saturday. Snow will move into northern CO Monday night and move across most of the state during the day on Tuesday, persisting into Tuesday evening. Snow amounts also look very similar to Saturday event, with 5-10 inches in the mountains, 2-6 inches in the foothills, and 1-4 inches on the plains as temps remain below average on Tuesday.

Wednesday should be dry but cool with temps remaining just below average. The GFS brings another shot of snow across CO on Thursday, while the ECMWF keeps CO dry. Friday looks dry statewide with temps near average. Models suggest some moisture from a cutoff upper low off the CA coast may move across southern portions of CO next Saturday with snow level up around 9000 ft.

For the next week, as the upper level pattern may begin to change, models have some different solutions, so any forecast would have a low confidence factor at this point. GFS brings a decent system across CO early that week while the ECMWF keeps things dry. Will have to wait and see how things evolve.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through February
Post Posted: Feb 8, 2018 1:45 pm 
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A mostly dry and mild day across the state today with temps 5-15 degrees above average. Some gusty northwest winds will remain over higher elevations of the mountains and foothills today. Latest models have delayed the incoming cold front on Friday until the afternoon time frame, so this may allow temps for most areas to reach average values before temps drop as cold front moves in from the north. As cold front pushes south across eastern CO on Friday, some low clouds and fog in the foothills is likely to form, with some freezing drizzle and ice fog possible by Friday evening/night. Associated upper level trough moves over the state on Saturday, so snow will begin early Saturday morning and spread from north to south across the state. Heaviest snow period looks to be from 9 am through 6 pm in our area, with snow moving south of our area by midnight Saturday night. Snow amounts still looking the same from yesterday, so expecting 2-6 inches locally in our foothills, with higher amounts in the mountains to our west and lighter amounts farther east across the Urban Corridor and plains. With cold air coming in Friday, expect roads to become snow and ice packed during the day on Saturday for most areas, with some melting in areas being treated, but roads could be slick in general so expect winter driving conditions across most of the state on Saturday. Temps will be below average Saturday, and then drop to near zero overnight into Sunday morning. Expect mostly sunny but cool conditions Sunday as temps remain below average with fresh snow on the ground.

For next week, models still getting things figured out. Upper level ridge position is just off the CA coast today, and models move this position farther west into the Pacific this weekend and is expected to remain in the Pacific most of next week. This will allow systems riding over the top of the ridge to move down into the western U.S. next week. The first such system will move down on Tuesday but latest models now cut this system off over central CA, which would limit any precip for CO, with best chances over the southwest and central mountains on Tuesday. Models then differ as to how quickly the cut-off upper low ejects, the GFS is faster and ejects the upper low across CO next Thursday into Friday, while the ECMWF moves the system to our south Friday into Saturday. GFS solution would bring precip to much of CO next Thursday, while the ECMWF keeps CO mostly dry next week.

Next weekend looks mostly dry on both models. The following week, models bring a fairly potent system from the Gulf of Alaska into CO early in the week, with significant snow potential for much of CO Monday into Tuesday. Drier weather for the remainder of the week with more precip possible late in the week and weekend as the upper level ridge is expected to remain in the Pacific and allow storms to move into CO.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through February
Post Posted: Feb 9, 2018 3:28 pm 
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Tis the tale of two weather patterns across the state today. Along and east of the I-25 corridor, shallow arctic air has created easterly upslope flow and light snow, some freezing drizzle and ice fog with cold temps in the teens and 20's. West of I-25, mostly sunny and breezy conditions with westerly winds and some orographic snow showers over the northern and central mountains. This will change this evening as a much stronger and deeper push of arctic air moves into CO from the northeast. Models suggest deeper clouds up to about 10,000 ft that will bring light snow, some freezing drizzle and freezing fog to much of CO along and east of the Front Range Crest tonight into early Saturday morning. Some light snow will also be possible over the northern and central mountains overnight.

Trend in models today was to delay the timing for heavier snow on Saturday. Latest models now hold off heavier snow until about Noon on Saturday for most areas, and then bring heavier snow across CO through the evening hours, finally pushing into southern CO Saturday night. Thus, heaviest snow in our local area will be from Noon to 8 pm, then diminish and end by about midnight. For snow amounts, models have remained pretty consistent, so expecting 5-10 inches in the mountains, 2-6 inches in the foothills, and 1-4 inches across the Urban Corridor and plains. Expect winter driving conditions across most of CO on Saturday into Saturday night with possible traction laws on higher roads, and even some closures possible in the usual places. Temps will remain cold on Saturday with high temps in the teems to low 20's, then dropping near or slightly below zero by Sunday morning as skies clear.

For next week, Monday looks mostly dry with temps near average. Models continue the trend of digging the next system over central CA with a cut-off upper low on Tuesday. Western CO may see some light precip Monday night into Tuesday along and west of the Divide with snow level near 6000 ft. Foothills may see a dusting, but not much more expected here. Wednesday and Thursday look mostly dry statewide with temps near average. Models have come into agreement in bringing cut-off upper low to our south on Friday into Saturday, so some light precip will be possible mostly along and south of I-70 Friday into Saturday night with snow level near 6000 ft. Foothills may see another dusting, but that's about it unless track of upper low changes. Models then bring a fairly potent system from the Gulf of Alaska into CO early the following week. Too early to tell for sure, but this system could bring significant snow to much of CO Monday into Tuesday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through February
Post Posted: Feb 10, 2018 9:08 am 
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Quick update on our incoming system. Snow band associated with upper level trough and jetstream is currently moving south between the WY border and I-70. This band will steadily move south over the state during the day today, so snow should begin in our foothills over the next few hours, with heaviest snow between Noon and 6 pm, with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible at times. Snow amounts look the same on latest models with 5-10 inches in the mountains, 2-6 inches in the foothills and Palmer Divide, 1-4 inches over the Urban Corridor and plains. Roads below 8000 ft already slick from overnight snow, freezing fog and drizzle so travel will become difficult this afternoon into tonight across the state, with delays and closures possible over higher elevation roads, and traction laws likely. Snow should begin to taper off this evening and come to a halt by midnight as band moves farther south. Temps will remain cold today in the teens to low 20's for highs, then dropping to near or below zero tonight.

Sunday should be mostly sunny as temps remain on the cool side of average.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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