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 Post subject: Some Snow and Cooler for the Week Ahead
Post Posted: Oct 7, 2018 1:17 pm 
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Not as bad start to the day today with some sun after a cool start. Upper level low is currently over the UT/AZ border area with southwest flow aloft over CO. Some showers have developed over western CO along and west of the Divide this afternoon with snow level 10,000 - 11,000 ft. Models are in decent agreement on the track of the upper low that will move to near the 4 Corners region on Monday and upper trough weakens and becomes an open trough that moves over CO on Tuesday. The weakening of the system as it moves over CO will mean lower precip amounts for our state unfortunately.

The forecast for the next 48 hours will look something like this. Precip will move into eastern CO late this afternoon or evening and continue overnight into Monday morning. Snow level will gradually lower to 8000-9000 ft overnight so higher foothills areas could see a trace to 2 inches of snow by commute time. Still believe main roads will remain mostly west with some slush for the morning commute, while secondary dirt roads may accumulate some snow above 8000 ft. Model suggest precip will continue during the day on Monday as snow level lowers to 7000-8000 ft. Precip will begin to taper off by Monday evening. Foothill areas could see an additional 1/2 to 2 inches of accumulation above 7500 ft during the day on Monday as roads should remain just wet.

Tuesday will remain cool with temps in the 30's for foothill areas and perhaps a few snow showers over higher terrain, but not expecting any accumulation anywhere. On Wednesday, another upper level trough will move down over CO from the northwest and bring renewed precip to mountain areas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Snow level should be near 8000 ft and not expecting much if any snow to make it east of the Front Range Crest at this time, so best the foothills could see is a light dusting Wednesday afternoon/evening above 8000 ft, but temps will remain on the cool side of average. A secondary upper trough will move down over CO on Thursday which will bring some additional precip to mountain areas, and perhaps some light precip to foothill areas Thursday afternoon and evening with snow level near 8000 ft, so upper foothill areas could see a dusting to an inch or two of snow.

Friday looks to be dry statewide as temps warm back to near seasonal norms. GFS bring precip from Sergio across CO Friday night into Saturday morning while ECMWF keeps this precip south of CO. Sunday looks dry on both models, although ECMWG brings some precip Sunday night into Monday across CO while GFS keeps things dry. Next week looks mostly dry on both models with temps near to slightly above average.

A new tropical storm has formed off the Yucatan Peninsula (Michael) and is forecast to move north over the Gulf of Mexico and become a category 1 hurricane early in the week and make landfall over the Florida panhandle during the day on Wednesday. This will create travel impacts as well as new flooding across FL and into GA this week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Some Snow and Cooler for the Week Ahead
Post Posted: Oct 8, 2018 1:07 pm 
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Cloudy and cool day with some bands of light precip circulating around upper low center near the 4 Corners today. Models are consistent in weakening this system into an open trough as it moves over CO on Tuesday. Fore precip, expect periods of light precip with snow level between 7000 and 8000 ft through this evening, and then some clearing tonight into Tuesday morning. Little if any additional accumulation expected in foothill areas today into tonight. As system moves east some wrap around precip is forecast to move back over eastern CO during the day on Tuesday, but majority will stat east of the I-25 corridor, with a few flurries over the mountains and into the foothills Tuesday afternoon. Temps will remain well below average and hover in the low to mid 30's in the foothills.

On Wednesday, another upper trough will move down from the northwest and bring new precip into Western CO that will spread into eastern CO Wednesday afternoon and evening. Majority of precip will remain west of the Front Range Crest, but foothill areas could see another dusting of snow above 7000-8000 ft, while mountains could see 1-3 inches. Temps remain very cool.

On Thursday, baggy upper trough remains over the Great Basin and some additional precip will move into western CO and some light precip may move east to about the I-25 corridor Thursday afternoon. Snow level will rise to 8000-9000 ft witha few inches possible in the mountains, but only a dusting at best for foothill areas.

Friday looks mostly dry statewide as temps rise back to near average levels.

For the weekend, models have latched onto a new scenario. Moisture from hurricane Sergio now appears to remain south of CO, but a new upper level trough is forecast to march south into CO late Saturday into Sunday. GFS is weaker and not as wet with this system, while the ECMWF is much wetter and brings snow levels down to 4000 ft or lower by Sunday morning. Too early to tell which solution may be more accurate as models will likely adjust this through the week, but something to keep an eye on.

Next week looks dry and mild on all models.

Michael has become a hurricane just off the west tip of Cuba today, and models suggest it will strengthen as it moves northward over very warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Latest track from NHC has Michael moving over the Florida panhandle somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachicola Wednesday afternoon as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds to 120 mph, so an intense late season storm will bring more flooding and damaging winds to the Florida Panhandle as well as across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic region Thursday into Friday.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Some Snow and Cooler for the Week Ahead
Post Posted: Oct 9, 2018 12:41 pm 
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Well, our fire danger sure is a whole lot lower this week, gotta love that... As a large long wave upper level trough remains anchored over the Inter-Mountain West this week, our weather pattern will remain very active as systems move through the upper level ridge over the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada and then southeast across Colorado. System today as it moves east is creating precip across eastern CO mostly along and east of I-25 with some snow down to plains level. In the foothills, continued upslope flow is creating drizzle and freezing drizzle with foggy conditions and poor visibility in areas. Precip will move east as it exits eastern CO this evening, and some flurries will be possible in our foothills, but little if any accumulation expected. Temps will remain well below average.

The rest of the week will feature quick moving systems. Next system moves into western CO tonight into Wednesday morning with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Some precip will move east to about the I-25 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Foothills could see a trace to 2 inches of new snow above 7000 ft from this system. Conditions should clear out Wednesday night.

On Thursday yet another piece of energy will move across CO and bring renewed precip to western CO Thursday afternoon with snow level 8000-9000 ft. Precip is forecast to move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor Thursday evening into Friday morning a snow level lowers to near 7000 ft. Foothill areas could see an additional 1/2 to 2 inches of new snow. Mountain areas could see 4-8 inches of new snow between today and Friday. Conditions should clear out during the day on Friday with some sun and temps will warm but still remain on the cool side of average.

Weekend weather is looking more interesting. After a cool and mostly sunny start on Saturday, yet another upper level trough will move down over CO from the northwest, A cold front will push south across CO Saturday afternoon bringing much cooler temps and an upslope flow. Models bring snow into northern CO late Saturday afternoon and snow moves south of the I-70 corridor by Saturday evening. Snow level will be below 4000 ft with this system, so this will be the first major snow of the season for much of eastern CO and the Urban Corridor. Snow will continue, heavy at times, Saturday night into Sunday morning, then gradual clearing by Sunday afternoon. Models currently suggest 6-12 inches possible in the foothills, with 4-8 inches possible over the Urban Corridor. Still too early to bank on this, but models are becoming consistent and are in agreement on this system, which is beginning to build confidence.

For next week, models move the upper ridge in the Pacific eastward over the Western U.S. which will create drier and warmer conditions over CO. Models keep CO mostly dry and raise temps back to seasonal norms or slightly above average for next week and into next weekend.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Some Snow and Cooler for the Week Ahead
Post Posted: Oct 10, 2018 11:35 am 
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Active weather day across the state. Overnight and this morning continued upslope flow produced light snow and freezing drizzle in the foothills which made for very slick roads. This afternoon, band of precip associated with next upper level trough moving over the state is bringing snow to the mountains and into the foothills with snow level 5500-6500 ft. Foothill areas could see 1-2 inches of new snow through this afternoon and conditions should improve by this evening, but roads could remain slick in areas through the evening commute. Models indicate fog and low clouds should diminish for most areas overnight tonight with just a few patchy areas, but temps will remain below freezing today and tonight so any moisture on roads could freeze.

Next system will move into western CO Thursday morning with renewed precip mostly west of the Divide through Noon with snow level 7000-8000 ft. Some light precip is forecast to move into the foothills Thursday afternoon into the evening hours as snow level remains in the 7000-8000 ft range. Currently looks like new snow amounts will be in the trace to an inch or two range for most foothill areas, while mountain areas could see 2-5 inches of new snow. Temps on Thursday will make it above freezing for most foothill areas before precip moves in, but remain well below average. Low clouds and fog may make a return to foothill areas Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday looks to be the nicest day of the week, as temps rise into the 40's in the foothills under partly cloudy skies with no precip expected statewide.

Saturday will start out nice after a cool start, and temps should make it into the 40's again by afternoon. Then things take a turn as a strong cold front will move south over CO during the early afternoon hours. Temps will drop dramatically as northeast upslope flow moves in behind front. Snow will follow as it moves south by late afternoon and evening. Snow will increase in intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning across all of eastern CO becoming heavy at times. Snow will begin to taper off by late Sunday morning with some clearing by afternoon. Models suggest 0.5 to 1.0 inches of liquid for this event, which will translate to 5-10 inches of snow in our foothills, and 3-7 inches across the Urban Corridor. Snow level will be below 4000 ft so this will be an all snow event, which will create slick roads from the Divide to the plains. With heavy snow occurring overnight, expect roads to be snow and ice packed into Sunday morning. Roads should improve by Sunday afternoon. Temps will drop to near zero in most foothills areas Sunday night into Monday morning, so roads could remain pretty slick for teh Monday morning commute.

Models suggest next week will be mostly dry with temps rising to near average values later in the week. Only a slight chance for some mountain snow late in the week, but foothills should remain mostly dry through next weekend.

Hurricane Michael made landfall near Panama City Beach around Noon MDT as a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds to 145 mph. Extreme damage and flooding will occur near and to the east of where eye made landfall, with storm surge of 9-14 feet, combined with waves that were in the 20-30 ft range in the Gulf this morning. Michael will weaken as it moves inland but should remain at hurricane strength as it moves into central GA tonight. Michael will then move over the Carolinas on Thursday and bring heavy rain to an already damp place. Michael will move back over the Atlantic Friday and likely regain tropical storm strength as it move off to the northeast.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Some Snow and Cooler for the Week Ahead
Post Posted: Oct 11, 2018 12:17 pm 
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Finally some sun and temps above freezing today in the foothills. Next system is bringing some heavy precip to areas along and west of the Front Range Crest today with snow level near 9000 ft. Mountain areas will see 5-10 inches of snow above 9000 ft through tonight, which will cause some travel issues above 10,000 ft over higher passes. Some rpecip may move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor this afternoon and evening, but not much in the way of amounts. Little if an accumulation is expected in foothill areas today. Precip will diminish overnight. Temps will remain on the cool side of average today for most areas.

Friday looks to be mostly sunny for most areas of the state and no precip is expected. Temps will climb close to average values, but likely remain on the cool side of average for most areas.

Saturday will start out mostly sunny and temps will rise to near average values before cold front drops south over eastern CO. Cold front will push south between 3 pm and 6 pm and much cooler air with northeast flow behind front. Snow will follow cold front and move south between 6 pm and 9 pm in our foothills. Heaviest snow will fall overnight as temps plummet. Snow will continue Sunday morning through about Noon, then begin to diminish Sunday afternoon. Temps will be very cold Sunday, with temps in the teens for foothill areas and 20's in the Urban Corridor and plains. For snow amounts, currently looks at the following:

Mountains west of Divide: 1-4 inches
Mountains east of Divide and Foothills: 4-9 inches
Urban Corridor: 2-6 inches
Eastern Plains: 1-3 inches

As conditions clear out Sunday night, temps will lower to near zero in foothill areas.

For next week, models build a upper level ridge back over the Western U.S. which will mean dry and mild weather for CO Monday through next weekend. Temps will start out cool early next week with snow on the ground, but gradually rise to near average values later next week into next weekend. Longer range models suggest upper ridge will remain in place over the Western U.S. through the end of October, which would mean mostly dry and mild weather for most of CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Some Snow and Cooler for the Week Ahead
Post Posted: Oct 12, 2018 11:46 am 
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Nice day across the state today as temps will rise close to average values but remain a few degrees below average under mostly sunny skies and light winds.

In general modes continue to lessen the snow from next system, but it still will be cold and snowy for most of Saturday night through Sunday afternoon in our foothills. Saturday starts out nice and warms up to near average temps by early afternoon. Then a cold front associated with upper level trough moving south from the northern Rockies will move south over eastern CO between 12 pm and 3 pm, with much cooler temps and gusty northeast winds behind the front. Snow will move south from WY into CO between 6 pm and 9 pm Saturday in our foothills, and then continue overnight heavy at times through 6 am, then snow will begin to taper off from north to south Sunday morning with partial clearing Sunday afternoon. I believe upslope flow will persist in the foothills so light snow will persist into Sunday afternoon/evening. Heaviest snow will be from midnight through 6 am. Latest models suggest somewhere between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of liquid for foothill areas, which would translate to 3-8 inches of snow in our area. Models suggest heaviest snow will be in the foothills north of I-70 where up to a foot of snow will be possible. Urban Corridor amounts look to be in the 2-6 inch range with heaviest amounts on the west and south side of the Metro area. Eastern plains should see 1-3 inches of snow. For roads, warm temps on Saturday will melt initial snow, then snow and much colder temps will create ice underneath snow pack, so I expect roads to be very slick Saturday night through Sunday morning, then some improvement by Sunday afternoon as snow lessens and crews take care of roads. This will extend from the Divide into the eastern plains, so a tough travel period for much of CO. Temps on Sunday expected to remain in the teens in foothill areas, and in the 20's across the Urban Corridor and plains.

Next week is expected to remain mostly dry across CO. Temps will remain below average Monday through Wednesday, then warm to near seasonal norms Thursday into next weekend. Models suggest CO will remain dry with near average temps the following week as well.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Some Snow and Cooler for the Week Ahead
Post Posted: Oct 14, 2018 6:39 am 
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Quick update as I wait for a flight at DIA. Snow has been late to move south as heaviest snow has remained north of I- 70 where jetstream banding has produced 4-6 inches of snow. Locally, snow will persist through noon and then begin to diminish. Amounts will be lower, so only 2-5 inches expected locally. Roads were in pretty good shape heading down the hill this morning, lots of plows out and roads well treated. Only some icy spots in areas, but slower speeds and all us well. Temps remain cold today, dropping to near zero overnight.

Rest of the week looks dry statewide and temps will gradually warm to near average later this week. Dry pattern looks to persist next week as well.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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