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 Post subject: Weather Outlook into Late February
Post Posted: Feb 15, 2019 2:19 pm 
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Conditions have mostly cleared statewide this afternoon, but gusty westerly winds will remain in the mountains and foothills as temps remain on the warm side of average today for most areas. Gusty westerly winds will persist and increase on Saturday.

Today will be the last mild day for a while as colder air replaces the mild Pacific air of the past few days. CO will remain under a very active pattern the next 7-10 days as a upper level ridge builds in the eastern Pacific and allows storms to move down from Western Canada into the Great Basin and across CO.

First such system will move into western CO tonight with snow level down to 4000 ft. Precip will move to about the Front Range Crest by Saturday morning. Because winds remain westerly and strong, this will limit snow in foothill areas to generally less than an inch. Mountains should see 4-8 inches with tough travel conditions as snow and wind combine. Models suggest some snow to push east into northeast CO Saturday, but best chances look to be across the far northeast plains away from downslope winds. Temps will be below average on Saturday, but winds become northwesterly and remain strong in the foothills through Sunday morning with speeds of 25-50 mph. Conditions will begin to clear Saturday night into Sunday morning in the mountains with just some lingering flurries.

Next system moves into the Great Basin Sunday and will bring new snow to western CO Sunday afternoon with snow level below 4000 ft. Snow will move into eastern CO Sunday night into Tuesday morning. Looks like foothill areas could see 2-5 inches of snow from this system, but it will depend on ultimate track and how much upslope flow develops. If models are correct, Monday could be a tough commute day. Wednesday looks mostly dry and cool, then next system would bring more snow to CO from late Thursday into Saturday morning.

Models suggest an even stronger system could impact CO the following week Monday into Wednesday, and additional systems to follow later in the week as temps remain well below average.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late February
Post Posted: Feb 17, 2019 4:09 pm 
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Long wave upper level trough will be over the western U.S. this week. Two short wave upper level troughs will move through the long wave position that will produce two distinct snow periods for CO. The first period will be from this afternoon into Wednesday morning, and the second period will be late Thursday into Saturday morning.

Snow showers will develop from the Divide into he foothills this afternoon and evening, with some convective showers that could produce brief heavy snow. Best chances locally will be from 6 pm through midnight. Snow will spread east into eastern CO tonight into Monday morning. Snow will turn to isolated showers Monday afternoon, before another round of snow moves in Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon, then just some lingering flurries into Wednesday morning. Temps will remain well below average Monday through Wednesday. Total snow amounts from this afternoon into Wednesday morning look as follows:

Southwest Mountains: 6-18 inches
Central and Southern Mountains: 5-10 inches
Northern Mountains: 3-8 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor and eastern plains: 1-3 inches

Expect winter driving conditions from this evening through Wednesday morning. Monday morning will be slick and slow, while Monday afternoon/evening should be fine. Tuesday morning could be slick, with better conditions Tuesday evening.

Next upper trough will move into the Great Basin Thursday and across CO Friday. Snow will pick up across western CO Thursday morning and move into the foothills Thursday evening, and spread into eastern CO during the day on Friday, then diminish Saturday morning. Southwest mountains will again see the most snow with another 6-18 inches. Foothills likely to see 1-3 inches from this system, with lesser amounts farther east. Temps will be 10-15 degrees below average, so not a lot of melting expected this week.

The weekend looks mostly dry statewide as temps warm to near average values.

For next week, upper ridge builds over the West early in the week which will keep CO dry with temps back above average. Later in the week, some light snow possible Thursday, then some mountain snow possible Saturday. Temps look to remain at or above average late next week. The following week, models suggest a strong zonal flow from the Pacific will move into CO bringing more precip.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late February
Post Posted: Feb 18, 2019 11:13 am 
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After some light snow yesterday evening (generally 1-3 inches in foothill areas), conditions will remain mostly dry during the day today, but temps will remain cold, with high temps in the low teens today. Upper level circulation will remain to our west today, with the southern center over northwest AZ and the northern center over western MT. Another surge of energy will move across CO this evening and tonight with heaviest snow across southwest CO. Foothill areas may see a trace to 2 inches with this next surge with most activity dissipating by early Tuesday morning, but just enough to keep roads with some snow on them for the morning commute. Overnight lows will again be near zero for most areas. The upper trough will finally move over CO on Tuesday, and I believe this will produce the heaviest snow from this system in the foothills. As upper trough axis moves over the state, the last snow band with some convective elements will move over the foothills and Urban Corridor Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. This band could produce 2-4 inches of snow across foothill and Urban Corridor areas. Snow should mostly be over by Midnight Tuesday night. This band cold cause slick conditions for the Tuesday return commute and keep roads slick through Wednesday morning as temps will remain cold, highs Tuesday in the teens again and lows Tuesday night near zero.

Conditions mostly clear out Wednesday for a mostly dry day statewide, but temps will remain below average with highs in the 20's for foothill areas.

Next upper level trough will follow a similar trajectory as it digs into southern NV on Thursday, then moves across CO late Friday into Saturday morning. Snow will move into western CO west of the Divide during the day on Thursday and move east to the Front Range Crest by Thursday evening. Models keep snow west of the Front Range Crest overnight and then move snow east into eastern CO Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Mountains look to see another 6-18 inches from this system with highest amounts over the southwest mountains. Foothill and Urban Corridor areas look to see 1-3 inches of snow as temps remain below average Thursday through Saturday.

Conditions improve Saturday afternoon and should remain mostly dry on Sunday outside of a few mountain flurries.

Next system will bring more snow to CO Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Mountains could see another 3-8 inches, while foothill and Urban Corridor areas will likely see less than 2 inches.

For the remainder of next week, models keep CO mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday, then more snow mostly west of the Divide possible Thursday into Friday as temps remain on the cool side of average.

Next weekend currently looks dry statewide with temps near to above average to start March. Models then suggest a chance for a more significant system, but way too early to tell on that.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late February
Post Posted: Feb 19, 2019 11:00 am 
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Upper level trough will finally move over CO today. As it passes this will provide enhanced lift and some instability that will produce a nice round of snow this afternoon and evening for the foothills and Urban Corridor. Models suggest snow amounts generally in the 1-3 inch range, with some areas perhaps up to 5 inches with enhanced convective showers. Just enough to make the evening commute a bit more challenging with slick roads as temps remain well below average. High today again in the teens and overnight lows near zero. Snow should dissipate between 9 pm and midnight, but roads may still have some slick spots for the Wednesday morning commute.

Wednesday looks to be mostly dry outside of a few lingering mountain flurries. Temps will remain below average but warm a bit from the past two days with more sunshine.

Next upper level trough will dig down into the Great Basin Thursday and some snow will move into western CO during the day on Thursday and move east to about the Front Range Crest by Thursday evening. Foothill areas could see a dusting to an inch of snow Thursday night, but snow will remain mostly west of the Front Range Crest through Friday morning. Snow will finally push east into eastern CO Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, then will exit the state Saturday afternoon. Mountain areas will see an additional 6-18 inches of snow, with heaviest snow over the southwest and south central mountains. Foothill areas probably in the 1-3 inch range, with lesser amounts farther east.

Sunday will remain cool with some mountain flurries and breezy westerly winds. Next system will move over Co on Monday and bring a new round of snow. This will be a fast moving system, so lighter amounts. Snow moves into the mountains Monday morning and into eastern Co Monday afternoon and evening. Snow should diminish Monday night. Mountains could see 3-8 inches, while foothill and Urban Corridor areas less than 2 inches.

For the rest of next week, upper ridge will be stationed off the West Coast leaving CO under a drier northwest flow aloft. Some mountain snow will be possible Tuesday into Thursday, but mostly dry east of the Divide with temps near average. Friday and Saturday look dry statewide with temps above average, then more snow possible Sunday into much of the following week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late February
Post Posted: Feb 20, 2019 2:59 pm 
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Mostly sunny and cool day across the state today as temps remain below average. Clouds will begin to increase west of the Divide this afternoon and evening.

Next system is currently moving down along the West Coast and will become a closed upper low over NV on Thursday. System become an open upper trough on Friday as it moves east across UT and AZ with the primary energy over AZ and this will become the primary system on Saturday over the TX panhandle. Thus this system will provide a limited amount of precip for most of CO, except over southwest CO where 6-18 inches of snow will fall, and over southeast CO Saturday morning.

Snow will pick up across western CO tonight mostly west of Vail Pass and then spread east during the day on Thursday to about the Front Range Crest. Model suggest some snow will make it to about the I-25 corridor Thursday evening into Friday morning, then snow will retreat back to about the Front Range Crest for most of the day on Friday. As final upper trough moves across the state, snow will spread east into eastern CO Friday evening into Saturday morning. Locally, we will see two snow periods from this system. First will be Thursday evening into Friday morning where a trace to 2 inches will be possible, and then again Friday afternoon into Saturday morning where another trace to 2 inches will be possible. Most mountain areas will see 3-8 inches, except 6-18 over the southwest mountains. Urban Corridor will see 1/2 to 2 inches total, while the southeast plains may see 2-6 inches Friday night into Saturday morning as system winds up over the TX panhandle. As this system moves east, it will become a major winter storm later Saturday into Sunday across the Midwest and Great Lakes.

Sunday through Friday of next week currently looks mostly dry statewide as upper ridge builds over the Great Basin leaving CO under a mostly dry northwest flow aloft. Mountains could see some light snow Thursday, but otherwise mostly dry and temps will be at or above average next week. It is not until next weekend that models suggest zonal flow from the Pacific will bring moisture into CO from late Saturday into much of the following week. The Pacific connection implies warmer temps and snow levels between 6000 and 8000 ft as we head into March.

So far in February, only 8 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain which is well below our average of around 16 inches for the month. It appears we will end February very close to where we normally are supposed to be for the season, close to 92 inches. We are heading into our snowiest two months of the season, March and April where we average close to 70 inches for the two months, or about 40% of our seasonal snowfall. So the next two months as usual will define where we end up for the season. It currently looks promising as a positive phase of the MJO is heading our way, which would usually bring enhanced precip for the next 15-30 days, so March could be a wet (snowy) and wild month for us. In addition, Spring tends to be above average for snowfall during most El Nino seasons, so hopefully a snowy March and April is ahead for us, which will help limit an early fire season.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late February
Post Posted: Feb 21, 2019 1:30 pm 
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Upper level low is currently located over southern NV with heaviest precip across southern CA and NV, southern UT and AZ. Some light snow has begun to move into western CO, and this will increase through the afternoon and evening hours as snow moves east to about the I-25 corridor. Latest models have slowed the system a bit, but they have kept most of the energy to our south across AZ, NM and into the TX panhandle on Saturday. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been hoisted for most areas west of the Front Range Crest from this afternoon through Friday night. Mountain areas will see almost continuous snow from this afternoon into Friday evening, so expect very difficult winter travel conditions if heading west. Locally, models suggest a light band of snow will be possible from 3 pm through midnight today but amounts mostly under an inch. We will see a break Friday morning before heavier snow will be possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning where 1/2 to 2 inches will be possible. Some models have higher amounts of 2-5 inches Friday, but most are in the 1-2 inch range. Heaviest snow will be across the southwest mountains where 16-30 inches are possible, and other mountain areas could see 6-12 inches. Urban Corridor will see 1/2 to 2 inches through the period, while the eastern plains may see 2-6 inches as system winds up Friday night over the TX panhandle creating better lift and upslope across far eastern CO. Temps will remain below average today and Friday.

Most areas will see clearing conditions Saturday except across southeast CO where clearing will wait until afternoon. Temps will remain below average most areas on Saturday. Sunday should also be dry statewide as temps remain slightly below average.

For next week, a zonal flow aloft early in the week then upper ridge builds along the West Coast later in the week and CO will have a northwest flow aloft. This translates to mostly dry conditions Monday through Friday as temps warm to average or slightly above. Some mountain snow will be possible Wednesday into Friday, but only light amounts expected. Better precip chances to move into eastern CO on Saturday as Pacific moisture makes it's way into CO with snow level around 8000 ft. More precip will be possible the following week as Pacific storms move into CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook into Late February
Post Posted: Feb 22, 2019 8:55 am 
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This post will focus on weather today into Saturday morning....

Upper level low is currently spinning along the CA/AZ border this morning. Models move the upper trough east across AZ and NM today and develop a closed upper low over the TX panhandle by Saturday morning. This track will keep the heaviest snow across southern portions of CO, but the upper trough will provide enough lift to produce decent snow across much of our state today into Saturday morning. Snow is already falling across western CO from about Vail Pass westward. This snow will gradually move east during the day today and increase in intensity this evening and tonight across eastern CO. Locally, snow will become possible after Noon today, and become likely after 4 pm. Heaviest snow will be from 5 pm through midnight then diminish through early Saturday morning. Here are snow amounts from today into Saturday morning:

Southwest Mountains: 5-10 inches
Central and Northern Mountains: 3-8 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-3 inches
northeast plains: trace - 2 inches
southeast plains: 2-6 inches

Expect winter driving conditions through the mountains all day, and over eastern CO this evening into Saturday morning. Temps will again remain below average today as well as on Saturday. If this systems slows and has a slightly farther northerly track, snow amounts could be much higher across areas of CO from I-70 south. Latest Hi-res models (HRRR and RAP) have begun to indicate the potential for up to 8 inches of snow across southern foothill and Palmer Divide areas, so just a heads up snow amounts could be higher.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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