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 Post subject: UPDATED - Red Flag Warning for Sunday for Monday
Post Posted: Sep 28, 2019 6:07 am 
Whoa momma! A top Pinecam poster!
Whoa momma! A top Pinecam poster!
Joined: Dec 22, 2006 10:21 pm
Posts: 2038
Location: BFE
This is the UPDATED fire wx forecast for SUNDAY

Front Range Foothills / Denver Metro Weather Briefing 29 September 2019 – 0635 hrs

No Fire Restrictions for JeffCo, or Douglas County

Clear Creek has Stage 1 Fire Restrictions

Arapahoe National Forest has a Stage 1 Fire Restrictions

Fire Danger is EXTREME
Adjective Fire Danger Ratings http://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/inyo/home ... rdb5173311

Synopsis: There is high confidence that widespread critical fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon. The warm and dry southwesterly flow will allow relative humidities to drop to as low as 10 percent over the plains and 13 percent over the higher terrain. Winds will be sustained between 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph over the plains and up to 60 mph across higher terrain. Nearly all locations north-central and northeast Colorado will be under the Red Flag Warning except for some of the northern tier of counties. One change that was made to the forecast was to include Logan and northeast Weld Counties to the warning. This is because there will be warmer and windier conditions than originally expected there.

Situational Report on Critical Fire Weather for today & Monday: https://www.weather.gov/media/bou/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

The long-term outlook through Thursday: Critical fire danger will continue on Monday due to gusty south to southwest winds along with low humidity. High fire danger will continue on Tuesday along west of the divide over the higher valley areas due to gusty southwest winds and low humidity. East of the divide a cold front will bring much cooler air and higher humidity to the foothills and eastern plains.

Meanwhile there will be a good chance of showers Tuesday night mainly across the plains. On Wednesday cooler air will spread across areas west of the divide with lighter winds. East of the divide temperatures will be below normal with a chance of rain showers across the plains.

On Thursday expect dry conditions with seasonal temperatures.

Watches & Warnings

For Sunday – A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire region from 1200 to 1900 hours.

For Monday – A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Front Range ABOVE 6,000 feet and the southern Metro / Palmer Divide from 1200 to 1900 hours (At this time, JeffCo BELOW 6,000 feet and Denver proper are excluded from this Watch)

* Winds...South to southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, except up to 60 mph over the higher terrain. On Monday south to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, except up to 50 mph over the higher terrain.

* Timing...Sunday afternoon, then again on Monday afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, growth, and spread of fires.

Hazardous Weather Outlook for today and tonight: Critical fire danger will be in place Sunday afternoon and early evening due to gusty winds and low humidity levels across portions of the higher terrain and plains. Southwest winds will gust up to 60 mph over the higher terrain and up to 45 mph across portions of the plains.

For Monday through Saturday: Critical fire danger will occur again Monday afternoon due to gusty south to southwest winds and low humidity levels across portions of the higher terrain and plains.

Fire danger will decrease east of the divide on Tuesday as a cold front moves across northeast Colorado. However, west of the divide fire danger will remain high over the higher mountain valleys due to gusty southwest winds and dry conditions.

There will be a good chance of showers across portions of the plains Tuesday night and again Wednesday night. Over the higher terrain rain chances will be lower.

Thursday looks dry across the forecast area. Moisture may increase on Friday along with a chance of late day showers and thunderstorms.

Front Range Foothills Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph.

Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Breezy, with a southwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Monday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Light and variable wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.

Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of drizzle with a slight chance of rain after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.

West Denver Metro Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph.

Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Monday
Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Monday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 45. North wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of drizzle with a slight chance of rain after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.

Fire Weather for the Western Metro Fire Districts below 6000 feet (Zone 239) –

Today...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.

Max Temperature.....83-87.
24 hr trend......10-15 degrees warmer.

Min Humidity........11-15%.
24 hr trend......25-35% drier.

20-foot winds.......West winds 4-8 mph with gusts to 25 mph shifting to the southwest 12-18 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.

Haines Index........3 or very low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 50-60 mph.

Mixing height.......9000-10000 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....Light winds until 1000, then south 10-15 mph until 1400, then southwest 20-25 mph.

Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1200, then good until 1400, then excellent until 1700, then very good.

Tonight...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.

Min Temperature.....48-52.
24 hr trend......Little change.

Max Humidity........55-65%.
24 hr trend......25-35% drier.

20-foot winds.......West winds 6-12 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening.

Haines Index........3 or very low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 50-60 mph.

Mixing height.......5000-6000 ft AGL until 2100, then 1000 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....Southwest 15-20 mph until 2300, then around 10 mph until 0300, then light until 0400, then northwest around 10 mph.

Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2000, then poor.

Monday...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.

Max Temperature.....76-80.
24 hr trend......4-7 degrees cooler.

Min Humidity........18-22%.
24 hr trend......4-7% wetter.

20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 6-12 mph.

Haines Index........2 or very low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 50-60 mph.

Mixing height.......5500-6500 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph until 1100, then southeast until 1200, then light until 1300, then southeast around 10 mph until 1700, then northeast.

Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1500, then fair.

Fire weather for the foothills fire districts above 6000 feet (zone 216) -

Today...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.

Max Temperature.....71-81.
24 hr trend......2-4 degrees warmer.

Min Humidity........12-16%.
24 hr trend......7-10% drier.

20-foot winds.......
Valleys / lower slopes...Breezy. Southwest winds 14-24 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph increasing to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges / upper slopes....Breezy. Southwest winds 15-25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph increasing to 45 mph in the afternoon.

Haines Index........3 or very low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 50-60 mph.

Mixing height.......8000-9000 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....Southwest 20-25 mph until 1100. Around 40 mph after 1500.

Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000. Excellent after 1400.

Tonight...

Sky/weather.........Clear.

Min Temperature.....42-52.
24 hr trend......Little change.

Max Humidity........44-54%.
24 hr trend......15-20% drier.

20-foot winds.......
Valleys / lower slopes...Southwest winds 11-17 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph decreasing to 30 mph after midnight.
Ridges / upper slopes....Breezy. Southwest winds 14-24 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Haines Index........3 or very low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 55-65 mph.

Mixing height.......1500-2500 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....Southwest 35-40 mph until 2000. Around 20 mph after 0400.

Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900. Poor after 2100.

Monday...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.

Max Temperature.....68-78.
24 hr trend......Little change.

Min Humidity........10-20%.
24 hr trend......2-4% drier.

20-foot winds.......
Valleys / lower slopes...Southwest winds 9-15 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Ridges / upper slopes....Southwest winds 12-22 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Haines Index........3 or very low.

LAL.................1.

CWR.................0 percent.

15K FT MSL winds....Southwest 55-65 mph.

Mixing height.......8000-9000 ft AGL.

Transport winds.....Southwest 15-20 mph until 1200, then 25-30 mph.

Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then very good until 1300, then excellent.

Fire weather terms and abbreviations

LAL – Lightning Activity Level:

LAL 1 - No thunderstorms
LAL 2 - Isolated thunderstorms. Light rain will occasionally reach the ground. Lightning is very infrequent, 1 to 5 cloud to ground strikes in a five minute period.
LAL 3 - Widely scattered thunderstorms. Light to moderate rain will reach the ground. Lightning is infrequent, 6 to 10 cloud to ground strikes in a 5 minute period.
LAL 4 - Scattered thunderstorms. Moderate rain is commonly produced Lightning is frequent, 11 to 15 cloud to ground strikes in a 5 minute period.
LAL 5 - Numerous thunderstorms. Rainfall is moderate to heavy. Lightning is frequent and intense, greater than 15 cloud to ground strikes in a 5 minute period.
LAL 6 - Dry lightning (same as LAL 3 but without rain). This type of lightning has the potential for extreme fire activity and is normally highlighted in fire weather forecasts with a Red Flag Warning.

Haines Index (HI) - Is a numerical value that indicates the potential for large wildfires to experience extreme fire behavior. The HI combines both the instability and dryness of the air by examining the lapse rate between two pressure levels in the atmosphere and the dryness of one of the pressure levels.
HI 2 or 3…..Very low
HI 4………..Low
HI 5………..Moderate
HI 6………..High

CWR – Chance of Wetting Rain. Measurable rain above 0.10 inches.

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