Blog: a web log
01/28/2004: "Snowpack forecasts a dry summer"
Snowpack forecasts a dry summer for Aurora Restrictions likely as Aurora's Upper South Platte Basin numbers lag 57% below average
Without significant moisture in the next three months, Aurora residents will see a continued mandatory watering restriction program that limits outdoor water use as in 2002 and 2003.
The city or Aurora receives 95 percent of its water supply from snowmelt, and so far this winter, the snow hasn't arrived in the watersheds from which Aurora collects its water.
The city will implement a water management plan for the third year in a row, and although Aurora's water supplies are recovering from the most damaging drought on record, reservoir levels are still not at a healthy level.
Reservoir system levels are currently 46 percent of capacity. In March 2003, the system reached its lowest level in history at 26 percent.
"We're anticipating that our residents will be on outdoor watering restrictions similar to 2003, although we are looking at approaches that give customers better flexibility in how they use water," city of Aurora Utilities Director Peter Binney said. "Our water customers dropped their water use by 30 percent in 2003, and that has helped give us an advantage if snowfall remains below average."
Binney cautions that forecasting this early in the year is a gamble. "We can be 60 percent reliable in early April forecasts, but before that things can change," he said.
The city measures snow water equivalent to help determine how much water will fill the city's reservoirs during the collection months of May, June and July.
The information is taken from the National Resources Conservation Service that manages SNOTEL (for SNOwpack TELemetry) sites. The sites report how much snow has fallen and the moisture content of the snow. Aurora then selects the sites where it has water rights and determines how much snow has fallen in the areas it collects water. This year, the averages for the whole South Platte basin are ranging higher than the averages from where Aurora gathers its water:
South Platte River Basin 50% of Aurora's Water Supply - 43% of average South Platte River Basin Total - 64% of average
Upper Colorado River Basin 25% of Aurora's Water Supply - 77% of average Upper Colorado River Basin Total - 86% of average
Arkansas River Basin 20% of Aurora's Water Supply - 74% of average Arkansas River Basin Total - 73% of average
