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 Post subject: Dry and Cool Weather Through Mid November
Post Posted: Oct 30, 2019 8:42 am 
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The lesson learned here, is when all models are in agreement on snowfall, don't try to second guess them. Models were correct in forecasting 2-6 inches for most foothill areas, while much heavier amounts fell farther east (up to 12 inches in spots). Record cold in foothill areas this morning with -9F at my home. I was not able to find records that showed sub zero temps locally since 1993.

Models indicate we are now in for an extended dry period as upper level ridge builds and is expected to remain anchored off the West Coast through next weekend. This will put CO under a dry northwest flow aloft, thus models do not forecast any precip statewide through November 10 at this point. For temps, they are expected to remain below average from today through next weekend. Here is a run down of expected temps in the foothills next 7-10 days:

Date Low High
Wed Oct 30 0 to -10 5 to 15
Thu Oct 31 -5 to +5 30 to 40
Fri Nov 1 10 to 20 15 to 25
Sat Nov 2 5 to 15 35 to 45
Sun Nov 3 5 to 15 30 to 40
Mon Nov 4 10 to 20 30 to 40
Tue Nov 5 20 to 30 25 to 35
Wed Nov 6 15 to 25 25 to 35
Thu Nov 7 20 to 30 30 to 40
Fri Nov 8 20 to 30 30 to 40

We will end October with 24 inches of snow at my location on Conifer Mountain, well above the average of 14 inches. Yet this is also well below our maximum of 54 inches back in October 2009.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Cool Weather Through Mid November
Post Posted: Oct 31, 2019 2:44 pm 
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Mostly sunny and warmer day across the state today as westerly winds have brought some warmer temps to eastern CO today with temps above freezing for most foothill areas.

Fast moving system will skirt from the Northern Rockies to our east tonight and will bring a cold front south into eastern CO tonight. Northerly winds and some low clouds will form across northeast CO tonight with some isolated freezing drizzle and snow showers along the CO/WY border. Low clouds are forecast to remain east of I-25, so should not be any impacts to foothill areas. Temps will be lower on Friday with temps in the mid to upper 20's for most foothill areas. There will be a slight chance for a few afternoon flurries in foothill areas Friday afternoon, but not expecting any accumulation.

For the weekend, westerly flow should prevail for most of CO and this will allow temps to rise into the 40's for most foothill areas under mostly sunny skies. No precip expected statewide. Sunday should be a near repeat of Saturday with mostly sunny skies and temps in the 40's locally.

For next week, a large upper ridge will build off the West Coast with a deep upper trough over the Eastern U.S. This will leave CO under a mostly dry northwest flow aloft, but as systems move from western Canada into the Central U.S., they will drag cold front into eastern CO, so we will see a series of systems pass to our north and mostly have the impact of creating cooler temps.

First system passes to our north on Monday and will cool temps slightly, but precip should remain to our north. Tuesday rebounds with westerly flow and warmer temps in the mid 40's locally. Wednesday should see even warmer temps in the upper 40's as westerly winds become stronger. Next system skirts to our north and will brings temps back into the 30's on Thursday. By late next week upper level ridge moves east slightly into the Great Basin which will warm temps even further next weekend close to average to most areas. No precip to speak of is forecast across the state next week, at least at this time.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Cool Weather Through Mid November
Post Posted: Nov 4, 2019 9:29 am 
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Upper level ridge remains off the West Coast and is blocking storms from impacting the Western U.S. and leaves CO under a mostly dry northwest flow aloft. No significant precip is expected through Saturday statewide. There will be gusty northwest winds at times during the week across higher elevations of the northern and central mountains as well as foothill areas.

Weak cold front clipper eastern CO overnight with a few showers near the CO/WY border. Temps will be below average for most areas today. Tuesday temps rebound to near average. Another weak cold front lowers temps below average Wednesday. Temps remain below average Thursday. Temps near average Friday, then above average Saturday.

Models bring a stronger system across CO on Sunday with decent precip chances Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. However, models keep most areas below 1 inch of snow, with the exception being the northern mountains and foothills where 2-5 inches are possible. Temps will be below average Sunday with gusty northwest winds.

Models keep the upper ridge over the Great Basin most of next week which would keep CO mostly dry with mils temps.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Cool Weather Through Mid November
Post Posted: Nov 5, 2019 10:42 am 
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Another dry day across the state today as temps rise to near average values for most areas. Some gusty westerly winds at higher elevations today over mountain and foothill areas.

On Wednesday, a system will skirt to our north and drag a cold front into eastern CO Wednesday afternoon. Temps will be near average before cold front passes and lowers temps. Behind the front, winds become northeasterly and will push low clouds into eastern CO that will fill in into foothill areas up to about 9000-10,000 ft. By evening, there will be areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle, light snow and fog that will persist into the early morning hours Thursday. Snow amounts expected to remain under 1/2 inch for most areas, and freezing drizzle may cause some slick roads at higher elevations.

Conditions will clear Thursday morning with mostly sunny skies by afternoon, and temps will remain below average for most areas.

Friday and Saturday will see dry conditions as temps warm above average each day. Some gusty westerly winds will prevail at higher elevations.

On Sunday, another system skirts to our north and a cold front will drag across eastern Co Sunday morning, which will keep temps below average. Low clouds will fill in across eastern CO behind front with northeast winds and some light snow may develop over northeast CO by Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Snow amounts will remain light and generally be under 1 inch for most areas, although it may be enough to create slick roads Sunday night into Monday morning.

For next week, Monday through Wednesday should remain dry as upper ridge remains along the West Coast. Temps Monday should remain below average, then near average Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, ECMWF brings a system down across CO which would bring cooler temps and some light snow, while the GFS keeps things dry and mild, so will wait and see how models converge on this.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Cool Weather Through Mid November
Post Posted: Nov 6, 2019 12:05 pm 
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Clear start to the day, but a cold front is moving into eastern CO and will bring much cooler temps with northeast winds and low clouds that will move into foothill areas late this afternoon into this evening. Main impact will be fog in foothill areas with reduced visibility. Later this evening and tonight there will be a chance for freezing drizzle to develop across portions of eastern CO including foothill areas. Light snow will also be possible later tonight that could create slick conditions on roads into early Thursday morning. With warm temps this week most major paved roads should remain wet to slushy initially, but could become slick by early Thursday morning. Any accumulation would be very light with mostly a dusting of snow at most, and thin ice build up if any. Temps will cap by Noon for most areas then cool significantly after cold frontal passage.

Conditions should clear out by late Thursday morning with mostly sunny skies by afternoon, but temps will remain 5-10 degrees below average.

Friday and Saturday should remain dry as temps warm above average each day.

Another fast moving system will move to our north Sunday and drag another cold front across eastern CO Sunday afternoon that will bring cooler temps and more low clouds and fog into foothill areas by Sunday evening and persist into Monday morning. Some freezing drizzle and/or light snow will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning very similar to the situation tonight into Thursday morning, meaning the potential for slick roads Monday morning, but less than 1 inch of snow is expected.

Conditions clear Monday morning but temps will remain well below average. Dry conditions expected Tuesday as temps rise to near average for most areas. Models diverge on Wednesday, as ECMWF brings another system into CO with cold temps and snow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, while the GFS keeps conditions dry and mild Wednesday into Thursday. Friday into next weekend looks dry with temps near average, then better snow chances the following week.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Cool Weather Through Mid November
Post Posted: Nov 8, 2019 12:15 pm 
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A couple of very nice Fall days ahead of us before next system cools things down. Temps today should be above average by 1-5 degrees, and then 5-10 degrees above average Saturday under mostly sunny skies. There will be some gusty westerly winds each day at higher elevations in the mountains and foothills.

On Sunday, it should be another fairly nice day with temps near average before a cold front will sweep down across eastern CO Sunday evening. Similar to recent systems, this is another fast moving clipper that will bring northeast flow and low clouds into eastern CO behind the cold front, and then a mix of freezing drizzle and light snow will be possible from about midnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Models keep any snow accumulation generally under 1 inch, but mix of snow and freezing drizzle could make for slick roads Sunday night into early Monday morning. We should see clearing conditions by Monday afternoon but temps will remain quite chilly on Monday with most areas remaining below freezing.

Upper ridge re-builds on Tuesday with temps warming back to near average under mostly sunny skies. Another clipper passes by on Wednesday, but only impact with this system should be cooler temps on Wednesday, models do not bring any precip into CO with this system.

Late next week upper ridge builds over the Great Basin which should bring more dry conditions to CO with temps near average Thursday into Saturday. Models then bring a upper trough into the Great Basin Saturday but then cut the upper low off off the Baja coast Sunday into early the following week. If current forecast is correct, that would leave CO dry, but these patterns can have several iterations that could change the forecast. Overall, November has been very dry across the state, and models do not hint at a significant pattern change until late this month that could bring better precip chances.

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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Dry and Cool Weather Through Mid November
Post Posted: Nov 10, 2019 11:41 am 
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Another beautiful Fall day today before next system arrives, as temps will be slightly above average again today. Cold front will drop south into eastern CO late this afternoon and move south of I-70 this evening. Behind cold front, low clouds will develop which will bring fog into foothill areas, and then a brief period of freezing fog/drizzle will follow, and then light snow will develop after midnight locally. Light snow will persist into Monday morning, with clearing Monday afternoon. Temps will remain well below average Monday with temps remaining below freezing for foothill areas. For snow amounts, locally we are looking at about an inch, heaviest amounts will be north of I-70 where 1-3 inches will be possible. Expect roads to be slick tonight into Monday morning, then should be fine by afternoon.

For the rest of the week, upper level ridge will remain along the West Coast which will keep CO under a mostly dry northwest flow aloft. Temps on Tuesday will rebound to near average as well as on Wednesday. Late Wednesday a dry cold front will move over eastern CO which will lower temps below average on Thursday. Some snow showers may be possible across the Northern Mountains Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but dry elsewhere.

On Friday temps rebound above average as upper ridge moves over the Rockies.

For next weekend, models still trying to figure out a solution. They have been vacillating between a progressive upper trough and cutting off the upper low to our south. Latest rendition has the GFS sticking with cutting off the upper low over northwest Mexico, while the ECMWF brings a progressive upper trough across CO. Not sure how this will unfold. GFS would keep CO dry, while ECMWF would bring some snow to western CO Saturday and then move that into eastern CO Saturday night into Sunday morning. Will have to wait and see how models resolve this during the week.

The good news is that models hint at a global pattern change by the end of November that would allow a more progressive storm track into CO, versus the blocking upper ridge that has persisted for much of November along the West Coast.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get" - R. Heinlein.

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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