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 Post subject: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 12, 2019 8:13 am 
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Mostly sunny day on tap with temps above average for most areas. A weak system will skirt to our north on Wednesday and this will cool temps to near average. There may be a few snow showers across mountain areas north of I-70 Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, but any accumulation would be light. Mostly sunny for Thursday with temps neat average. Temps will rise 5-10 degrees above average Friday as upper ridge moves over CO under mostly sunny skies.

For the weekend, models have settled on a progressive upper trough that will move over CO Saturday. GFS is a bit faster and would bring precip into western CO Saturday morning while the ECMWF holds off until Saturday afternoon. Either way precip is a good bet for Saturday for most of CO. Snow level will be near 8000 ft Saturday morning lowering to near 6000 ft Saturday afternoon and evening. Snow amounts will be in the 2-5 inch range for mountain areas, and generally less than an inch for foothill areas above 6000 ft. Conditions should clear out by Saturday night. Sunday should be mostly sunny with temps near average.

For next week, Monday looks dry and mild with temps near to slightly above average. Models then differ on handling of next incoming system. GFS is deeper and faster with upper trough that would move into the Great Basin Tuesday into Wednesday and across CO Thursday. ECMWF meanwhile brings the upper trough over CA on Tuesday and then develops a cutoff upper low off the CA coast Wednesday into Thursday. GFS would bring snow to much of CO Wednesday into Thursday, while the ECMWF would keep CO mostly dry through Thursday. Not sure how this will turn out, so will continue to monitor. In general, models have hinted for a while that the persistent upper ridge along the West Coast that has been present most of November will be replaces with a much more progressive upper level pattern that will finally bring rain to CA and give CO much better precip chances towards the end of November.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 14, 2019 2:52 pm 
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Pretty tranquil weather week as upper level ridge has moved into the Great Basin today leaving CO mostly sunny with temps near average. Friday will also be dry and temps will warm about 5 degrees above average.

For the weekend, models bring a fast moving upper trough across CO which will bring some precip chances to portions of the state. Ahead of system, strong westerly winds will warm temps above average by Noon on Saturday, then a cold front will move south across eastern CO Saturday afternoon which will cool temps and bring some precip chances. Models currently keep majority of precip over the northern and central mountains but some will move into foothill and Urban Corridor areas late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Snow level will be in the 7000-8000 ft range and for amounts, mountains may see 1-3 inches with generally less than 1 inch elsewhere, so not expecting any significant travel impacts outside of high mountain passes. Precip should be done by midnight with clearing skies overnight. Sunday should be dry with some breezy westerly winds at higher elevations and temps near average.

For next week, models have converged with the GFS now following the ECMWF solution as follows. Upper ridge will be along the West Coast Monday, then a upper trough from the Pacific will move along the West Coast on Tuesday, and then become a cut-off upper low over central CA Wednesday and over southwest AZ on Thursday and scooting across southern NM on Friday. This pattern evolution does not favor any significant precip for CO next week, some precip will be possible Wednesday into Friday morning, but precip will favor mountain areas. Currently looks like mountain areas could see 4-8 inches of snow with heaviest amounts south of I-70, and foothill areas may see 1-3 inches. This pattern could still change, which would impact precip outlook next week. In general, temps look to be above average Monday through Wednesday, then below average Thursday and Friday.

Next weekend looks dry with temps near average. Longer range models suggest not much precip is expected through the end of November for CO, which is fairly common as November tends to be a drier month for most areas of the state.

For those following the flooding in Venice, it is a city that is prone to floods. For those unaware, Venice is actually an island in the Venetian Lagoon which sits at the north end of the Adriatic Sea. Hence, when tides rise to higher than average values, the city floods. This year, flooding has been heightened because of several factors, which include heavy rainfall over the Alps to the north that drains into the Venetian Lagoon, strong onshore winds over the Adriatic that has helped push water to higher levels than average in the northern Adriatic, rising seal levels, and higher than normal tides. The floods this year are the worst since 1966.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 15, 2019 2:18 pm 
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Mostly sunny and warm day today with temps well above average as westerly winds have created some katabatic warming east of the mountains.

For Saturday, latest models have kept the incoming system farther north, which means less precip and the associated cold front will be delayed. Thus, Saturday is now looking mostly dry and temps will likely climb above average before the cold front arrives in the late afternoon. Cooler temps and some low clouds will fill in behind cold front Saturday evening and night so could be some low visibility in foothill areas. Precip in the form of snow above 7000 ft will mostly be limited to northern mountain areas. Foothills could see a few flakes, but that is about it. Mountain areas may see 1-2 inches of snow.

Sunday looks to be mostly sunny with temps remaining slightly above average.

For next week, models are now in decent agreement on the upper level pattern. A upper level trough will move along the West Coast and become a cut-off upper low somewhere near Southern California by Wednesday and then will slowly move east into Arizona on Friday and across southern CO Saturday as the system weakens. This leaves CO dry Monday and Tuesday with temps 5-10 degrees above average. By Wednesday, some precip will gradually move into western CO and into eastern CO by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Snow level looks to be near 6000 ft on Wednesday. Snow will continue across most of CO into Thursday morning then begin to diminish by Thursday afternoon with snow level near 4000 ft on Thursday. Friday will see lingering showers mostly west of the Divide with snow level near 6000 ft. At present, southwest CO seems to be the biggest beneficiary for precip from this system with 10-20 inches of snow across the San Juan Mountains possible. Elsewhere, lesser amounts are expected with 6-12 inches across mountain areas west of the Divide, and 2-4 inches in foothill areas with less snow farther east. Again, still early for much confidence in this system as cut-off lows tend to do their own thing and models do not always handle them well.

Next weekend looks dry as upper ridge builds back over the Great Basin, and temps looks to be near to slightly below average.

A long range look at the week of Thanksgiving shows dry and mild weather early in the week, with a chance for snow Thursday into Friday, but still a long ways away so the forecast is likely to change.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 18, 2019 4:11 pm 
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After some strong overnight winds, another dry and mild day across the state with temps well above average. Tuesday will also be dry and mild with temps ever warmer and well above average.

Focus then turns to our next system. Models are now in pretty good agreement in bringing a closed upper low off the SoCal coast Wednesday moving into northern AZ on Thursday and eats of CO by Friday. At the surface, a cold front will push south over CO on Wednesday morning which will cool temps below average on Wednesday, and precip will move into western CO Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with snow level initially near 9000 ft. Precip will move east to about the Front Range Crest by Noon on Wednesday and then into eastern CO Wednesday afternoon as snow level lowers to near 6000 ft. This system will have two distinct impulses. Snow will begin to diminish after midnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then second impulse will move in Thursday afternoon into Friday morning and snow level will be below 4000 ft in this second surge. For snowfall amounts, not a big deal with 6-12 inches in mountain areas, heaviest south of I-70, and locally foothill areas should see 2-6 inches from Wednesday into Friday morning, with 1-4 inches along the Urban Corridor and lesser amounts farther east. Roads are likely to become snow and ice packed Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, then again Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

Conditions clear out Friday but temps will remain below average. Weekend weather looks dry and temps should be near average Saturday, a bit cooler on Sunday.

Next system arrives Monday afternoon with snow moving across most of CO into Tuesday morning with several inches of new snow possible and cold temps. More snow possible Wednesday, and then Friday into next weekend especially across western CO.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 19, 2019 2:55 pm 
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Warm day across the state in advance of next system. Temps running 5-15 degrees above average.

Models have come into good agreement for next system. Upper level low dropping south along the CA coast will phase and pick up upper low that has been hanging around off the Baja coast and combine into closed upper low off the SoCal coast Wednesday morning. Upper low will move into southern UT on Thursday and will move east of CO on Friday. Models still suggest there will be two primary periods of precip with this system. The first phase will move into western CO Wednesday morning with snow level near 10,000 ft. Precip will move east into eastern CO Wednesday afternoon as snow level lowers to near 7000 ft by Wednesday evening. Heaviest precip with first wave will be between 3 pm and 9 pm locally, then precip becomes showery Wednesday night into Thursday morning as snow level near 5000 ft by Thursday morning. Light intermittent snow will persist Thursday morning, and then pick up again Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, then precip diminishes late Friday morning with partial clearing Friday afternoon. Snow level lowers to below 4000 ft Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. For snow amounts from Wednesday through Friday, here is what models suggest:

Southwest Mountains: 6-14 inches
Central and Northern Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-4 inches
Eastern Plains: Trace to 2 inches

Roads initially will be mostly wet with recent warm temps and high snow levels through Wednesday afternoon, then roads above 7000 ft will become snow and ice packed Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Roads likely improve Thursday until next wave of snow moves in Thursday afternoon into Friday morning with colder temps, roads will again become snow and ice packed down into the Urban Corridor.

Weekend continues to look dry statewide with temps near average.

Next system arrives Monday with snow loving into western CO Monday morning and spreading into eastern CO Monday afternoon with snow persisting into Tuesday morning with showers continuing into Tuesday evening. Much colder temps Monday into Tuesday, with temps into the single digits locally Tuesday. Models suggest another 6-12 inches possible in mountain areas, and 2-6 inches possible in Foothill areas as well as the Urban Corridor, so expect more slick roads late Monday into Tuesday. Models then not in very good agreement late next week. They agree that temps will remain below average, but ECMWF brings a brush of new snow late Wednesday into Thursday morning, while the GFS brings heavier snow to most of CO on Thanksgiving day, so will have to wait and see how models resolve.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 21, 2019 11:09 am 
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A cold and dreary day as freezing fog and freezing drizzle persist across most areas east of the Divide this morning. For snow amounts, generally under 2 inches for most areas yesterday into this morning. The second wave of precipitation from this slow moving upper low currently centered over Las Vegas is currently moving over western CO and will move into portions of eastern CO this afternoon into tonight. Locally, models suggest anywhere from a trace to 2 inches of additional snow through Friday morning. Mountains will see heavier amounts especially south of I-70 across the southwest mountains. Snow should diminish Friday morning with some partial clearing by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Temps will remain well below average today into Friday.

For the weekend, upper ridging will move over the Western U.S. and keep CO under a mostly dry northwest flow aloft. Temps should be back to near average values this weekend with some gusty westerly winds at higher elevations.

For next week, models coming into better alignment and favoring the ECMWF solution as usual. Models bring a fast moving upper trough from the northwest across CO Monday into Tuesday morning. This will bring new snow into western CO mostly north of I-70 Monday morning and snow will spread east into eastern CO Monday afternoon into Monday night, then precip will diminish Tuesday morning with clearing by afternoon. Models are suggesting snow amounts of 5-10 inches in the northern and central mountains, with 2-5 inches possible in foothill areas, and 1-3 inches along the Urban Corridor. Temps expected to be below average Monday and Tuesday.

For later next week over Thanksgiving, models dig a deep upper trough over the Western U.S. Wednesday into Friday. The upper trough axis remains to our west with southwest flow aloft over CO during this period. This pattern would bring heavy snow to much of CO west of the Divide, but little snow to areas east of the Divide. Best chance for snow locally would be Friday into Saturday morning when upper trough finally moves across CO. Mountain areas could see 1-2 feet of new snow Wednesday through Friday, while areas east of the Front Range Crest may see 1-2 inches. Temps look to remain mostly below average Wednesday through Friday, especially west of the Divide. Travel across mountain passes will be a challenge over the period.

Upper ridge is expected to move over CO next weekend which would bring mostly dry weather with temps closer to average.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 22, 2019 10:09 am 
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As our upper low moved into southeast CO overnight, The Front Range picked up some nice wrap around snow on the back side. Foothill areas generally in the 2-4 inches range, with up to 6 inches farther south along the Palmer Divide into Colorado Springs. Snow will move south and east during the day leading to partial clearing this afternoon, so roads should be in better shape for the return commute later this afternoon and evening. Temps will remain well below average today across the state.

Weekend weather continues to look quite nice, dry weather expected statewide but temps will remain on the cool side of average Saturday with fresh snow on the ground, then close to average on Sunday.

For next week, models bring a fast moving upper trough across CO Monday into Tuesday. Some light snow will develop over western CO Monday morning, then move into eastern CO Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Snow looks to begin in foothill areas between 3 pm and 6 pm Monday then become moderate at times Monday night into Tuesday morning, then diminish by late Tuesday morning with partial clearing by Tuesday afternoon. For snow amounts, areas north of I-70 will receive highest amounts with 5-10 inches possible across northern mountains and foothills. South of I-70, amounts look to be in the 2-6 inch range for mountain areas, and 1-3 inches for foothill areas and the Urban Corridor. Expect roads to become snow and ice packed by Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Temps will be below average Monday and Tuesday.

As we approach Thanksgiving, models persist in carving out a very large and deep upper trough across the Western U.S. Wednesday into Saturday. Models develop a closed upper low off the CA coast on Thursday, and then move that slowly over SoCal Friday into Saturday morning, then finally move the upper trough east across CO late Saturday into Sunday morning. At the surface, this pattern will favor the southwest mountains of CO with very heavy snow. Snow moves into western CO on Wednesday favoring southwest CO. Snow continues on Thursday west of the Divide and again favors southwest mountains. On Friday snow moves a little farther east to the Front Range Crest but again favors the southwest mountains. Snow finally moves into eastern CO Friday night into Saturday and then exits the state on Sunday. For snow amounts from Wednesday into Saturday, models suggest 4-5 feet of snow will be possible over southwest mountains, while 6-12 inches will be possible over central and northern mountain areas. Locally, foothills only looking at 1-3 inches late Friday into Saturday. As with any slow moving upper low, the forecast can change dramatically if the course and timing of the system change, so confidence still pretty low for late next week, but increasing as models have been consistent last 2 days. Hence, anyone traveling west across CO late next week expect winter driving conditions, and if heading to southwest CO, expect road closures and possible avalanche danger.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 24, 2019 3:21 pm 
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Mostly sunny and breezy day across the state today with temps above average.

Focus turns to strengthening system that will approach CO on Monday and persist into Tuesday. Latest models have intensified upper level trough as it approaches CO on Monday and then will pass over CO early Tuesday. Accordingly, models have intensified snowfall for most areas of the state. Precip is expected to move into western CO Monday morning with snow level near 6000 ft. Precip is not expected to move east of the Front Range Crest until between 3 pm and 6 pm Monday afternoon as snow level lowers below 4000 ft after 6 pm, and then spreads east Monday evening and snow becomes moderate to heavy at times Monday night into Tuesday morning, then begins to diminish Tuesday afternoon and end by midnight Tuesday night. NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning from east of the Divide across northeast CO north of I-70. Latest models bring significant snowfall into the foothills, Urban Corridor and northeast plains, with the following amounts from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night:

Mountain Areas west of the Divide: 2-6 inches
Northern Foothills (north of I-70): 8-14 inches
Southern Foothills (south of I-70): 4-9 inches
Urban Corridor: 6-12 inches
Northeast Plains: 5-10 inches
Southeast Plains: 1-3 inches

Expect very difficult driving conditions east of the Divide and generally north of I-70 Monday evening through Tuesday evening, especially Tuesday morning. Expect possible road closures along with traction laws which will lead to lengthy travel times, so if you don't absolutely have to be out, better to stay put. Temps Monday before precip begins will be relatively mild, and then temps lower quickly as cold front moves through Monday afternoon with temps in the teens on Tuesday in foothill areas and low 20's in the Urban Corridor. Temps will likely drop below zero Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

For late in the week, models develop a large and deep upper level low over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday that drops south into northern CA Thursday, and then into the Great Basin on Friday and east of CO by Saturday. Wednesday will be dry east of the Divide with some snow showers possible in mountain areas Wednesday afternoon. Temps will remain very cold across eastern CO on Wednesday with temps mostly in the teens. On Thursday snow becomes widespread west of the Front Range Crest but mostly dry across eastern CO as temps remain well below average. Travel east of the Front Range Crest should be ok on Thanksgiving day, but will have winter conditions across mountain areas. On Friday snow moves east into eastern CO through Friday evening. Snow showers will persist into Saturday across much of CO as temps remain well below average Friday and downright cold on Saturday. For new snow amounts, southwest mountains remain the favored location with 3-4 feet possible. Central and Northern Mountains should see 8-16 inches. Foothill areas will see 2-5 inches with 1-3 inches across the Urban Corridor and plains.

Sunday should be dry statewide but temps will remain very cold with fresh snow covering most of the state. Some snow showers will move into areas west of the Divide Monday afternoon as temps remain well below average. More snow will be possible west of the Divide on Tuesday but dry east as temps remain below average.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 25, 2019 8:33 am 
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The calm before the storm this morning....

In looking at latest high resolution model data, I am not as gung ho about this storm as the NWS, except for the northern foothills. Latest data still bring snow into our foothills and adjacent Urban Corridor areas late this afternoon, and then heavy snow gets going later tonight after midnight into Tuesday morning. Heaviest snow will be from the foothills east and north of I-70. Snow will begin to diminish Tuesday afternoon turning showery Tuesday evening and should be done by midnight. For the latest snow totals, I am using the latest HRRR model output which suggests the following:

Mountain Areas: 4-8 inches
Northern Foothills: 12-24 inches
Southern Foothills: 4-9 inches
Urban Corridor: 5-10 inches
Northeast Plains: 6-12 inches
Southeast Plains: 1-4 inches

This is still a potent winter storm that will impact travel across much of CO during one of the busiest travel periods of the year. I expect many flight cancellations at DIA starting tonight and lasting into Tuesday afternoon. I also expect road closure in some areas, and traction laws in many areas tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Travel Tuesday morning will be very difficult, so unless travel is urgent, best to stay put. Temps will also be very cold from tonight into Wednesday with high temps Tuesday in the teens locally, then dipping near zero Wednesday morning.

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"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather" - John Ruskin


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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 25, 2019 1:51 pm 
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Update from the 1800 UTC (Noon MST) HRRR model. Snow amounts now favored across foothill areas as upper level low will intensify across southeast CO overnight into Tuesday morning providing good upslope flow across eastern CO. Latest HRRR suggest amount of 18-30 inches possible across northern foothills, and now 8-16 inches for foothill areas south of I-70. Other models still not as robust with snow amounts, so we could see 3-8 inches on the low side, and up to 18 inches on the high side. Heaviest snow still looks to be from midnight through Noon Tuesday, so travel Tuesday morning will be very difficult if not impossible in some areas. Metro area and northeast plains still looking at 6-12 inches which will adversely impact travel, including at DIA where many cancellations are expected from tonight through Tuesday afternoon.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 26, 2019 8:11 am 
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Impressive storm so far as snow amounts approaching 3 feet across the northern foothills. Locally, we are seeing from 6 to 14 inches so far this morning. Upper and surface low over southeast CO currently and bringing good upslope flow across all of eastern CO. Models suggest snow will begin to taper off later this morning and turn to showers this afternoon and evening, with snow finally ending by midnight. Strong northerly winds east of I-25 will create blizzard conditions through this evening, so expect lots of road closures across northeast CO today. Models suggest an additional 2-5 inches of snow locally today so roads will remain snow and ice packed through Wednesday morning. Temps will remain in the teens for most foothill areas then dip to near zero overnight.

Stay safe everyone. If you must venture out today, make sure you have an emergency kit in your vehicle. Traction laws are in effect almost everywhere east of the Divide today.

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 Post subject: Re: Weather Outlook Through Thanksgiving
Post Posted: Nov 27, 2019 8:38 am 
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After our nice pre-Thanksgiving snow, a dry day on tap for travelers today but temps will remain very cold with high temps mostly in the teens in foothill areas today, but with sunny skies the melting will begin. Highest snow total I have seen was up near Drake in the northern foothills of 33 inches. Lots of 1-2 foot reports along the foothills and the Urban Corridor recieved from 6 to 18 inches.

Focus now turns to next Pacific storm that is battering the West Coast. Upper level low currently over Oregon will move south info northern California Thursday and then slide northeast into Idaho on Friday and into the Northern Plains Saturday. This track is not very good for snowfall in our state, but with southwest flow aloft the southwest mountains will benefit the most. Some snow will move into southwest CO this afternoon into Thursday morning with some snow across mountain areas west of the Divide Thursday afternoon. Heavier snow moves in Thursday night into Friday across all mountain areas with snow moving east to the Front Range Crest Friday afternoon. Foothill areas may see a dusting to an inch of snow late Friday, but this becomes mostly a high wind event east of the Front Range Crest. Snow will persist in mountain areas Saturday but diminish by Saturday afternoon. Temps will remain below average this week statewide, but may get above freezing Thursday and Friday in foothill areas. The main concern locally will be high winds Friday into Saturday as westerly winds will gust to 25-50 mph late Friday through Saturday evening and then diminish on Sunday. With fresh snow, there could be serious blowing and drifting snow especially in prone areas like South Park where ground blizzards will be possible. For mountain areas, southwest mountains will see 2-3 feet from Today into Saturday, while other mountain areas will see generally 6-12 inches. Saturday temps will be cold and with winds wind chills well below zero.

For next week, models build upper ridge over the Rockies Monday through Wednesday which should lead to dry weather and temps closer to average. Upper low moves to our south Thursday into Friday and only precip looks to be south of US 50, so dry here.

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